caa a22 4500 469074671 CHVBK 20180323132932.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e19920301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/BF02573955 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/BF02573955 Toward a rule-based biome model [Elektronische Daten] [Ronald Neilson, George King, Greg Koerper] Current projections of the response of the biosphere to global climatic change indicate as much as 50% to 90% spatial displacement of extratropical biomes. The mechanism of spatial shift could be dominated by either 1) competitive displacement of northern biomes by southern biomes, or 2) drought-induced dieback of areas susceptible to change. The current suite of global biosphere models cannot distinguish between these two processes, thus determining the need for a mechanistically based biome model. The first steps have been taken towards the development of a rule-based, mechanistic model of regional biomes at a continental scale. The computer model is based on a suite of empirically generated conceptual models of biome distribution. With a few exceptions the conceptual models are based on the regional water balance and the potential supply of water to vegetation from two different soil layers, surface for grasses and deep for woody vegetation. The seasonality of precipitation largely determines the amount and timing of recharge of each of these soil layers and thus, the potential mixture of vegetative life-forms that could be supported under a specific climate. The current configuration of rules accounts for the potential natural vegetation at about 94% of 1211 climate stations over the conterminous U.S. Increased temperatures, due to global warming, would 1) reduce the supply of soil moisture over much of the U.S. by reducing the volume of snow and increasing winter runoff, and 2) increase the potential evapotranspiration (PET). These processes combined would likely produce widespread drought-induced dieback in the nation's biomes. The model is in an early stage of development and will require several enhancements, including explicit simulation of PET, extension to boreal and tropical biomes, a shift from steady-state to transient dynamics, and validation on other continents. SPB Academic Publishing bv, 1992 Biogeography nationallicence biome nationallicence climate nationallicence model nationallicence United States nationallicence vegetation nationallicence water balance nationallicence Neilson Ronald U.S. EPA Environmental Research Laboratory, Oregon State University, 200 S.W. 35th St., 97333, Corvallis, Oregon, USA aut King George U.S. EPA Environmental Research Laboratory, ManTech Environmental Technology, Inc., 200 S.W. 35th St., 97333, Corvallis, Oregon, USA aut Koerper Greg U.S. EPA Environmental Research Laboratory, Oregon State University, 200 S.W. 35th St., 97333, Corvallis, Oregon, USA aut Landscape Ecology Kluwer Academic Publishers 7/1(1992-03-01), 27-43 0921-2973 7:1<27 1992 7 10980 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02573955 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02573955 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Neilson Ronald U.S. EPA Environmental Research Laboratory, Oregon State University, 200 S.W. 35th St., 97333, Corvallis, Oregon, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- King George U.S. EPA Environmental Research Laboratory, ManTech Environmental Technology, Inc., 200 S.W. 35th St., 97333, Corvallis, Oregon, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Koerper Greg U.S. EPA Environmental Research Laboratory, Oregon State University, 200 S.W. 35th St., 97333, Corvallis, Oregon, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Landscape Ecology Kluwer Academic Publishers 7/1(1992-03-01), 27-43 0921-2973 7:1<27 1992 7 10980 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer