caa a22 4500 475762479 CHVBK 20180406123555.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170329e20000901xx s 000 0 eng 10.1023/A:1009615032159 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1023/A:1009615032159 Modeling and risk assessment for soil temperatures beneath prescribed forest fires [Elektronische Daten] [Haiganoush Preisler, Sally Haase, Stephen Sackett] Prescribed fire is a management tool used by wildland resource management organizations in many ecosystems to reduce hazardous fuels and to achieve a host of other objectives. To study the effects of fire in naturally accumulating fuel conditions, the ambient soil temperature is monitored beneath prescribed burns. In this study we developed a stochastic model for temperature profiles (values at 15 minute intervals) recorded at four depths beneath the soil during a large prescribed burn study. The model was used to assess the temporal fit of the data to particular solutions of the heat equation. We used a random effects model to assess the effects of observed site characteristics on maximum temperatures and to estimate risks of temperatures exceeding critical levels in future similar prescribed fires. Contour plots of estimated risks of temperatures exceeding 60°C for a range of fuel levels and soil depths indicated high risks of occurrence, especially when the moisture levels are low. However, the natural variability among sites seems to be large, even after controlling fuel and moisture levels, resulting in large standard errors of predicted risks. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2000 ambient temperature nationallicence autoregressive models nationallicence functional data nationallicence heat equation nationallicence nonlinear regression nationallicence random effects nationallicence Preisler Haiganoush Pacific Southwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Riverside, CA aut Haase Sally Pacific Southwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Riverside, CA aut Sackett Stephen Pacific Southwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Riverside, CA aut Environmental and Ecological Statistics Kluwer Academic Publishers 7/3(2000-09-01), 239-254 1352-8505 7:3<239 2000 7 10651 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009615032159 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009615032159 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Preisler Haiganoush Pacific Southwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Riverside, CA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Haase Sally Pacific Southwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Riverside, CA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Sackett Stephen Pacific Southwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Riverside, CA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Environmental and Ecological Statistics Kluwer Academic Publishers 7/3(2000-09-01), 239-254 1352-8505 7:3<239 2000 7 10651 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer