caa a22 4500 475762630 CHVBK 20180406123555.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170329e20000601xx s 000 0 eng 10.1023/A:1009627012258 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1023/A:1009627012258 Pinsky Paul National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, USA aut Assessment of risk from long term exposure to waterborne pathogens [Elektronische Daten] [Paul Pinsky] Disease due to waterborne pathogens, whether in outbreak or endemic form, continues to be a problem in both the developing and the developed world. Control of waterborne disease requires accurate assessment of the pathogen dose-response relation and of likely patterns of exposure. Heretofore, risk assessment of pathogen exposure has been done on the basis of several standard biologically plausible dose-response models. In this paper, the problem of estimating the long-term risk from waterborne pathogens is put into a rigorous mathematical and statistical framework. The implications of the biologic assumptions embedded in the dose-response models (e.g., heterogeneity in susceptibility) are fully considered, as are the likely patterns of long-term exposure (e.g., temporal correlations within individuals and heterogeneity of mean exposures). Two types of long-term risk are described, risk per person-time and risk per individual where the latter is the risk of infection at least once. The effects on these risks of heterogeneity in individuals' susceptibilities and mean exposures and of temporal correlations of exposures are described, both theoretically and empirically using a sample of experimental data sets. Because different models with equal plausibility may give very different results in the low-dose range but fit the experimental data equally well, we apply the model uncertainty algorithm of Buckland et al. (1997) on example data sets. Finally, the computational aspects of the general problem, which are often challenging, are discussed along with the conditions under which simplifying approximations may be utilized. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2000 pathogen dose-response curve nationallicence model uncertainty nationallicence Poisson distribution nationallicence population risks nationallicence Environmental and Ecological Statistics Kluwer Academic Publishers 7/2(2000-06-01), 155-175 1352-8505 7:2<155 2000 7 10651 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009627012258 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009627012258 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Pinsky Paul National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Environmental and Ecological Statistics Kluwer Academic Publishers 7/2(2000-06-01), 155-175 1352-8505 7:2<155 2000 7 10651 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer