caa a22 4500 475787412 CHVBK 20180406123702.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170329e20001201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s004140000143 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s004140000143 Calafell F. Unitat de Biologia Evolutiva, Facultat de Cincies de la Salut i de la Vida, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Doctor Aiguader 80, 08003 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain e-mail: francesc.calafell@cexs.upf.es; Tel.: +34-93-5422841; Fax: +34-93-5422802, FR aut The probability distribution of the number of loci indicating exclusion in a core set of STR markers [Elektronische Daten] [F. Calafell] The distribution of the number of loci out of the 13 in the CODIS STR set that would show an exclusion (i.e., a genotype set incompatible either with the prosecution hypothesis or with Mendelian transmission) was estimated in different scenarios. The knowledge of this distribution would provide a framework against which casework evidence can be compared. I used allele frequencies in Iberian and in Italian populations to generate individual genotypes at random and to test in 1 million simulation replicates, how many of the 13 loci would give an exclusion in an individual identification case, a paternity case, and a double parenthood case. All three scenarios were tested under an expected overall exclusion, both for unrelated individuals and for cases in which the suspect or the alleged father was the brother of the real culprit or real father. Paternity and double parenthood cases were also tested in the true scenario, with exclusionary loci due to mutation. In individual identification cases, the average number of exclusionary loci was 11.95 with a minimum of 7. This STR set also showed sufficient power to resolve identification cases in which the evidence sample came from a suspect's sib. False paternity cases yielded an average of 7.65 exclusionary loci and exclusions with only one (0.0108%) or two (0.14%) exclusionary loci were obtained only rarely. The cases of exclusion with one locus could lead to likelihood ratios in favour of paternity, while both true and false paternity cases with two exclusionary loci would often lead to non-conclusive likelihood ratios. The average number of exclusionary loci in a paternity case where the alleged father was the real father's brother was 3.82, with a significant number of cases where no exclusions were obtained. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2000 Key words STR nationallicence Identification nationallicence Paternity nationallicence Parenthood nationallicence Exclusion nationallicence https://doi.org/10.1007/s004140000143 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s004140000143 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Calafell F. Unitat de Biologia Evolutiva, Facultat de Cincies de la Salut i de la Vida, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Doctor Aiguader 80, 08003 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain e-mail: francesc.calafell@cexs.upf.es; Tel.: +34-93-5422841; Fax: +34-93-5422802, FR aut Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer