caa a22 4500 475800729 CHVBK 20180406123736.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170329e20000601xx s 000 0 eng 10.1023/A:1006667601289 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1023/A:1006667601289 A Competing Risks Model of Supreme Court Vacancies, 1789-1992 [Elektronische Daten] [Christopher Zorn, Steven Van Winkle] We hypothesize that Supreme Court justices will consider the likely ideological disposition of their successor in their decision to retire or remain on the Court. Furthermore, because a justice's decision to remain on the Court places him or her "at risk” of dying in office, it is necessary to consider a model of both voluntary and involuntary vacancies. Our study examines three broad classes of factors influential to Supreme Court vacancies: personal considerations, institutional context, and political influences. We assess the factors that affect the probability of a vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court due to mortality and retirement at the individual level from 1789 to 1992, using a competing risk duration model and incorporating time-varying covariates. We find significant differences in the hazards of vacancy due to these two causes, and a number of factors are shown to influence the probability of a vacancy, including a general propensity to retire near the beginning of presidents' second terms. However, we find little evidence of the influence of political factors in either retirement-or death-related vacancies, suggesting that justices who retire do not generally do so for expressly political reasons and those who die in office rarely do so as a result of "holding out” for a like-minded replacement. Plenum Publishing Corporation, 2000 Zorn Christopher Department of Political Science, Emory University, 30322, Atlanta, GA aut Van Winkle Steven Department of Political Science, State University of New York at Stony Brook, 11794-4392, Stony Brook, NY aut Political Behavior Kluwer Academic Publishers-Plenum Publishers 22/2(2000-06-01), 145-166 0190-9320 22:2<145 2000 22 11109 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1006667601289 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1006667601289 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Zorn Christopher Department of Political Science, Emory University, 30322, Atlanta, GA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Van Winkle Steven Department of Political Science, State University of New York at Stony Brook, 11794-4392, Stony Brook, NY aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Political Behavior Kluwer Academic Publishers-Plenum Publishers 22/2(2000-06-01), 145-166 0190-9320 22:2<145 2000 22 11109 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer