caa a22 4500 475814126 CHVBK 20180406123805.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170329e20001201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/PL00001069 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/PL00001069 Evolution-induced Catastrophe and its Predictability [Elektronische Daten] [Y.J. Wei, M.F. Xia, F.J. Ke, X.C. Yin, Y.L. Bai] Abstrac: —Both earthquake prediction and failure prediction of disordered brittle media are difficult and complicated problems and they might have something in common. In order to search for clues for earthquake prediction, the common features of failure in a simple nonlinear dynamical model resembling disordered brittle media are examined. It is found that the failure manifests evolution-induced catastrophe (EIC), i.e., the abrupt transition from globally stable (GS) accumulation of damage to catastrophic failure. A distinct feature is the significant uncertainty of catastrophe, called sample-specificity. Consequently, it is impossible to make a deterministic prediction macroscopically. This is similar to the question of predictability of earthquakes. However, our model shows that strong stress fluctuations may be an immediate precursor of catastrophic failure statistically. This might provide clues for earthquake forecasting. Birkhauser Verlag Basel,, 2000 Key Words: Evolution-induced catastrophe, sample-specificity, stress fluctuations, earthquake prediction, predictability nationallicence Wei Y.J. State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China. E-mail: weiyj@lnm.imech.ac.cn, CN aut Xia M.F. State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China. E-mail: weiyj@lnm.imech.ac.cn, CN aut Ke F.J. State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China. E-mail: weiyj@lnm.imech.ac.cn, CN aut Yin X.C. State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China. E-mail: weiyj@lnm.imech.ac.cn, CN aut Bai Y.L. State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China. E-mail: weiyj@lnm.imech.ac.cn, CN aut https://doi.org/10.1007/PL00001069 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/PL00001069 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wei Y.J. State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China. E-mail: weiyj@lnm.imech.ac.cn, CN aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Xia M.F. State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China. E-mail: weiyj@lnm.imech.ac.cn, CN aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ke F.J. State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China. E-mail: weiyj@lnm.imech.ac.cn, CN aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Yin X.C. State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China. E-mail: weiyj@lnm.imech.ac.cn, CN aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Bai Y.L. State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China. E-mail: weiyj@lnm.imech.ac.cn, CN aut Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer