caa a22 4500 475814169 CHVBK 20180406123805.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170329e20001201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/PL00001082 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/PL00001082 Winter M.E. QUAKES, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Queensland, Australia., AU aut The Plausibility of Long-wavelength Stress Correlation or Stress Magnitude as a Mechanism for Precursory Seismicity: Results from Two Simple Elastic Models [Elektronische Daten] [M.E. Winter] —Observations of accelerating seismic activity prior to large earthquakes in natural fault systems have raised hopes for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting. If this phenomena does exist, then what causes it to occur? Recent theoretical work suggests that the accelerating seismic release sequence is a symptom of increasing long-wavelength stress correlation in the fault region. A more traditional explanation, based on Reid's elastic rebound theory, argues that an accelerating sequence of seismic energy release could be a consequence of increasing stress in a fault system whose stress moment release is dominated by large events. Both of these theories are examined using two discrete models of seismicity: a Burridge-Knopoff block-slider model and an elastic continuum based model. Both models display an accelerating release of seismic energy prior to large simulated earthquakes. In both models there is a correlation between the rate of seismic energy release with the total root-mean-squared stress and the level of long-wavelength stress correlation. Furthermore, both models exhibit a systematic increase in the number of large events at high stress and high long-wavelength stress correlation levels. These results suggest that either explanation is plausible for the accelerating moment release in the models examined. A statistical model based on the Burridge-Knopoff block-slider is constructed which indicates that stress alone is sufficient to produce accelerating release of seismic energy with time prior to a large earthquake. Birkhauser Verlag Basel,, 2000 Key Words: Precursory seismicity, stress correlation nationallicence https://doi.org/10.1007/PL00001082 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/PL00001082 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Winter M.E. QUAKES, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Queensland, Australia., AU aut Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer