caa a22 4500 475814185 CHVBK 20180406123805.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170329e20001201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/PL00001088 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/PL00001088 Development of a New Approach to Earthquake Prediction: Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory [Elektronische Daten] [X.C. Yin, Y.C. Wang, K.Y. Peng, Y.L. Bai, H.T. Wang, X.F. Yin] —The seismogenic process is nonlinear and irreversible so that the response to loading is different from unloading. This difference reflects the damage of a loaded material. Based on this insight, a new parameter-load/unload response ratio (LURR) was proposed to measure quantitatively the proximity to rock failure and earthquake more than ten years ago. In the present paper, we review the fundamental concept of LURR, the validation of LURR with experimental and numerical simulation, the retrospective examination of LURR with new cases in different tectonic settings (California, USA, and Kanto region, Japan), the statistics of earthquake prediction in terms of LURR theory and the random distribution of LURR under Poisson's model. Finally we discuss LURR as a parameter to judge the closeness degree to SOC state of the system and the measurement of tidal triggering earthquake.¶The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) theory was first proposed in 1984 (Yin, 1987). Subsequently, a series of advances were made (Yin and dYin, 1991; Yin, 1993; Yin et al. 1994a, b, 1995; Maruyama, 1995). In this paper, the new results after 1995 are summarized (Yin et al., 1996; Wang et al., 1998a; Zhuang and Yin, 1999). Birkhauser Verlag Basel,, 2000 Key Words: Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR), earthquake prediction, random distribution of LURR, intermittent SOC, tidal triggering earthquake nationallicence Yin X.C. LNM (Laboratory for Non-linear Mechanics), Institute of Mechanics, CAS, Beijing 100036,, CN aut Wang Y.C. LNM (Laboratory for Non-linear Mechanics), Institute of Mechanics, CAS, Beijing 100036,, CN aut Peng K.Y. LNM (Laboratory for Non-linear Mechanics), Institute of Mechanics, CAS, Beijing 100036,, CN aut Bai Y.L. LNM (Laboratory for Non-linear Mechanics), Institute of Mechanics, CAS, Beijing 100036,, CN aut Wang H.T. LNM (Laboratory for Non-linear Mechanics), Institute of Mechanics, CAS, Beijing 100036,, CN aut Yin X.F. LNM (Laboratory for Non-linear Mechanics), Institute of Mechanics, CAS, Beijing 100036,, CN aut https://doi.org/10.1007/PL00001088 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/PL00001088 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Yin X.C. LNM (Laboratory for Non-linear Mechanics), Institute of Mechanics, CAS, Beijing 100036,, CN aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wang Y.C. LNM (Laboratory for Non-linear Mechanics), Institute of Mechanics, CAS, Beijing 100036,, CN aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Peng K.Y. LNM (Laboratory for Non-linear Mechanics), Institute of Mechanics, CAS, Beijing 100036,, CN aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Bai Y.L. LNM (Laboratory for Non-linear Mechanics), Institute of Mechanics, CAS, Beijing 100036,, CN aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wang H.T. LNM (Laboratory for Non-linear Mechanics), Institute of Mechanics, CAS, Beijing 100036,, CN aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Yin X.F. LNM (Laboratory for Non-linear Mechanics), Institute of Mechanics, CAS, Beijing 100036,, CN aut Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer