caa a22 4500 475819446 CHVBK 20180406123818.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170329e20000101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1023/A:1019045224429 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1023/A:1019045224429 A dynamic model of the spatial spread of an infectious disease: the case of fox rabies in Illinois [Elektronische Daten] [Brian Deal, Cheryl Farello, Mary Lancaster, Thomas Kompare, Bruce Hannon] A spatially explicit computer model is developed to examine the dynamic spread of fox rabies across the state of Illinois and to evaluate possible disease control strategies. The ultimate concern is that the disease will spread from foxes to humans through the pet population. Modeling the population dynamics of rabies in foxes requires comprehensive ecological and biological knowledge of the fox and pathogenesis of the rabies virus. Variables considered including population densities, fox biology, home ranges, dispersal rates, contact rates, and incubation periods, can greatly effect the spread of disease. Accurate reporting of these variables is paramount for realistic construction of a spatial model. The spatial modeling technique utilized is a grid-based approach that combines the relevant geographic condition of the Illinois landscape (typically described in a georeferenced database system) with a nonlinear dynamic model of the phenomena of interest in each cell, interactively connected to the other appropriate cells (usually adjacent ones). The resulting spatial model graphically links data obtained from previous models, fox biology, rabies information and landscape parameters using various hierarchical scales and makes it possible to follow the emergent patterns and facilitates experimental stimulus/result data collection techniques. Results of the model indicate that the disease would likely spread among the native healthy fox population from East to West and would occur in epidemiological waves radiating from the point of introduction; becoming endemic across the State in about 15 years. Findings also include the realization that while current hunting pressures can potentially wipe out the fox in the State, some level of hunting pressure can be effectively utilized to help control the disease. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2000 spatial modeling nationallicence biological modeling nationallicence dynamic modeling nationallicence Deal Brian Research Scientist, CERL, 61820, Champaign, IL, USA aut Farello Cheryl Veterinary Biosciences, University of Illinois, 61801, Urbana, IL, USA aut Lancaster Mary Veterinary Biosciences, University of Illinois, 61801, Urbana, IL, USA aut Kompare Thomas Urban and Regional Planning, University of Illinois, 61801, Urbana, IL, USA aut Hannon Bruce Geog/NCSA, University of Illinois, 61801, Urbana, IL, USA aut Environmental Modeling & Assessment Kluwer Academic Publishers 5/1(2000-01-01), 47-62 1420-2026 5:1<47 2000 5 10666 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019045224429 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019045224429 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Deal Brian Research Scientist, CERL, 61820, Champaign, IL, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Farello Cheryl Veterinary Biosciences, University of Illinois, 61801, Urbana, IL, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lancaster Mary Veterinary Biosciences, University of Illinois, 61801, Urbana, IL, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kompare Thomas Urban and Regional Planning, University of Illinois, 61801, Urbana, IL, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hannon Bruce Geog/NCSA, University of Illinois, 61801, Urbana, IL, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Environmental Modeling & Assessment Kluwer Academic Publishers 5/1(2000-01-01), 47-62 1420-2026 5:1<47 2000 5 10666 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer