caa a22 4500 475819454 CHVBK 20180406123818.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170329e20000101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1023/A:1019041023520 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1023/A:1019041023520 Approaches for performing uncertainty analysis in large-scale energy/economic policy models [Elektronische Daten] [Antje Kann, John Weyant] A number of key policy insights have emerged from the application of large-scale economic/energy models, such as integrated assessment models for climate change. These insights have been particularly powerful in those instances when they are shared by all or most of the existing models. On the other hand, some results and policy recommendations obtained from integrated assessment models vary widely from model to model. This can limit their usability for policy analysis. The differences between model results are mostly due to different underlying assumptions about exogenous processes, about endogenous processes and the dynamics among them, differences in value judgments, and different approaches for simplifying model structure for computational purposes. Uncertainty analyses should be performed for the dual purpose of clarifying the uncertainties inherent in model results and improving decision making under uncertainty. This paper develops a unifying framework for comparing the different types of uncertainty analyses through their objective functions, categorizes types of uncertainty analyses that can be performed on large models, and compares different approaches to uncertainty analysis by explaining underlying assumptions, suitability for different model types, and advantages and disadvantages. The appendix presents a summary of integrated assessment models for climate change that explicitly account for uncertainty. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2000 Kann Antje Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford University, Terman Engineering Building, Room 406, 94305, Stanford, CA, USA aut Weyant John Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford University, Terman Engineering Building, Room 406, 94305, Stanford, CA, USA aut Environmental Modeling & Assessment Kluwer Academic Publishers 5/1(2000-01-01), 29-46 1420-2026 5:1<29 2000 5 10666 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019041023520 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019041023520 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kann Antje Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford University, Terman Engineering Building, Room 406, 94305, Stanford, CA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Weyant John Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford University, Terman Engineering Building, Room 406, 94305, Stanford, CA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Environmental Modeling & Assessment Kluwer Academic Publishers 5/1(2000-01-01), 29-46 1420-2026 5:1<29 2000 5 10666 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer