caa a22 4500 475838270 CHVBK 20180406123854.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170329e20000401xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s101440050007 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s101440050007 Population viability analysis of a Japanese black bear population [Elektronische Daten] [S. Horino, S. Miura] A population viability analysis (PVA) was conducted for a Japanese black bear population in Shimokita Peninsula, northern Japan, using an individual-based simulation model. Demographic stochasticity was incorporated in the model as well as the environmental stochasticity from the fluctuation of annual mast production. The extinction risk of the population was estimated with an emphasis on the effect of carrying capacity reduction and hunting pressure. The results suggest that the population has a high risk of extinction. Even if there is no further reduction of the carrying capacity and no hunting at all, the present size of the population cannot pass the test of the minimum viable population size (MVP) concept. Considering possible carrying capacity reduction in the future and actual hunting pressure, the population will fail to survive for 100 years at a very high probability. Because of deterioration of habitat and loss of the corridor between habitat areas, the population has become very sensitive to demographic impacts, including hunting pressure. The Society of Population Ecology and Springer-Verlag Tokyo, 2000 Key words Shimokita Peninsula nationallicence Individual-based model nationallicence Simulation nationallicence Demographic stochasticity nationallicence Environmental fluctuation nationallicence Horino S. Forest Biology Division, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, P.O. Box 16, Tsukuba-Norin, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan Tel. +81-298-73-3211 (ext. 417); Fax +81-298-73-1543 e-mail: jh3gbd@ffpri.affrc.go.jp, JP aut Miura S. Tohoku Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Morioka, Japan, JP aut https://doi.org/10.1007/s101440050007 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s101440050007 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Horino S. Forest Biology Division, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, P.O. Box 16, Tsukuba-Norin, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan Tel. +81-298-73-3211 (ext. 417); Fax +81-298-73-1543 e-mail: jh3gbd@ffpri.affrc.go.jp, JP aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Miura S. Tohoku Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Morioka, Japan, JP aut Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer