caa a22 4500 475838297 CHVBK 20180406123854.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170329e20000401xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s101440050010 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s101440050010 Asynchronization of local population dynamics and persistence of a metapopulation: a lesson from an endangered composite plant, Aster kantoensis [Elektronische Daten] [M. Shimada, F. Ishihama] Fragmentation of a large habitat makes local populations less linked to others, and a whole population structure changes to a metapopulation. The smaller a local population is, the more strengthened extinction factors become. Then, frequent extinctions of local populations threaten persistence of the metapopulation unless recolonizations occur rapidly enough after local extinctions. Spatially structured models have been more widely used for predicting future population dynamics and for assessing the extinction risk of a metapopulation. In this article, we first review such spatially structured models that have been applied to conservation biology, focusing on effects of asynchronization among local population dynamics on persistence of the whole metapopulation. Second, we introduce our ongoing project on extinction risk assessment of an endangered composite biennial plant, Aster kantoensis, in the riverside habitat, based on a lattice model for describing its spatiotemporal population dynamics. The model predicted that the extinction risk of A. kantoensis depends on both the frequency of flood occurrence and the time to coverage of a local habitat by other competitively stronger perennials. Finally, we present a measure (Hassell and Pacala's CV 2) for quantifying the effect of asynchronization among local population dynamics on the persistence of a whole metapopulation in conservation ecology. The Society of Population Ecology and Springer-Verlag Tokyo, 2000 Key words Habitat fragmentation nationallicence Spatially structured model nationallicence Extinction risk assessment nationallicence CV2 nationallicence Population viability analysis nationallicence Conservation nationallicence Shimada M. Department of Systems Sciences (Biology), University of Tokyo, 3-8-1 Komaba, Meguro, Tokyo 153-8902, Japan Tel. +81-3-5454-6796; Fax +81-3-5454-6998 e-mail: mshimada@balmer.c.u-tokyo.ac.jp, JP aut Ishihama F. Department of Systems Sciences (Biology), University of Tokyo, 3-8-1 Komaba, Meguro, Tokyo 153-8902, Japan Tel. +81-3-5454-6796; Fax +81-3-5454-6998 e-mail: mshimada@balmer.c.u-tokyo.ac.jp, JP aut https://doi.org/10.1007/s101440050010 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s101440050010 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Shimada M. Department of Systems Sciences (Biology), University of Tokyo, 3-8-1 Komaba, Meguro, Tokyo 153-8902, Japan Tel. +81-3-5454-6796; Fax +81-3-5454-6998 e-mail: mshimada@balmer.c.u-tokyo.ac.jp, JP aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ishihama F. Department of Systems Sciences (Biology), University of Tokyo, 3-8-1 Komaba, Meguro, Tokyo 153-8902, Japan Tel. +81-3-5454-6796; Fax +81-3-5454-6998 e-mail: mshimada@balmer.c.u-tokyo.ac.jp, JP aut Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer