caa a22 4500 475838343 CHVBK 20180406123854.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170329e20000401xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s101440050004 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s101440050004 Risk of extinction and categories of endangerment: perspectives from long-lived reptiles [Elektronische Daten] [G. J. W. Webb, E. Carrillo C.] The IUCN Red List of Threatened Animals is an important conservation tool, but the accuracy of predictions about risks of global extinction within 10 years or three generations is difficult to test objectively. In this study, we compare IUCN predictions with the results of attempts to derive realistic scenarios that could lead to the global extinction of six species of long-lived reptiles. For three species, the IUCN predictions matched real events reasonably well but still overestimated risks of global extinction. For the other species, the predictions did not match real events. Reasons why disparities occur are discussed. The Society of Population Ecology and Springer-Verlag Tokyo, 2000 Key words IUCN criteria nationallicence Conservation nationallicence Status nationallicence Prediction nationallicence Accuracy nationallicence Threat nationallicence Webb G. J. W. Wildlife Management International, P.O. Box 530, Sanderson NT 0812, Australia Tel. +61-8-8922-4503; Fax +61-8-8947-0678 e-mail: gwebb@wmi.com.au, AU aut Carrillo C. E. Centro de Investigaciones Pesqueras, Ministerio de Industria Pesquera, Barlovento, Santa Fe, Habana, Cuba, CU aut https://doi.org/10.1007/s101440050004 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s101440050004 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Webb G. J. W. Wildlife Management International, P.O. Box 530, Sanderson NT 0812, Australia Tel. +61-8-8922-4503; Fax +61-8-8947-0678 e-mail: gwebb@wmi.com.au, AU aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Carrillo C E. Centro de Investigaciones Pesqueras, Ministerio de Industria Pesquera, Barlovento, Santa Fe, Habana, Cuba, CU aut Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer