caa a22 4500 475838734 CHVBK 20180406123855.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170329e20001201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s001680000030 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s001680000030 Forecasting industrial employment figures in Southern California: A Bayesian vector autoregressive model [Elektronische Daten] [Anil Puri, Gökçe Soydemir] Abstract.: In this paper, we construct a Bayesian vector autoregressive model to forecast the industrial employment figures of the Southern California economy. The model includes both national and state variables. The root mean squared error (RMSE) and the Theil's U statistics are used in selecting the Bayesian prior. The out-of-sample forecasts derived from each model and prediction of the turning points show that the Bayesian VAR model outperforms the ARIMA and the unrestricted VAR models. At longer horizons the BVAR model appears to do relatively better than alternative models. A prior that becomes increasingly looser produces more accurate forecasts than a tighter prior in the BVAR estimations. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2000 Puri Anil School of Business Administration and Economics, California State University, Fullerton, Fullerton, CA 92834, USA (e-mail: apuri@fullerton.edu), US aut Soydemir Gökçe College of Business Administration, University of Texas-Pan American, Edinburg, TX 78539, USA (e-mail: soydemir@panam.edu), US aut https://doi.org/10.1007/s001680000030 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s001680000030 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Puri Anil School of Business Administration and Economics, California State University, Fullerton, Fullerton, CA 92834, USA (e-mail: apuri@fullerton.edu), US aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Soydemir Gökçe College of Business Administration, University of Texas-Pan American, Edinburg, TX 78539, USA (e-mail: soydemir@panam.edu), US aut Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer