caa a22 4500 477055443 CHVBK 20180405111346.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170330e19961101xx s 000 0 eng 10.2307/2061785 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.2307/2061785 On the utility of population forecasts [Elektronische Daten] [Jeff Tayman, David Swanson] Many customers demand population forecasts, particularly for small areas. Although the forecast evaluation literature is extensive, it is dominated by a focus on accuracy. We go beyond accuracy by examining the concept of forecast utility in an evaluation of a sample of 2,709 counties and census tracts. Wefind that forecasters provide "value-added” knowledge for areas experiencing rapid change or areas with relatively large populations. For other areas, reduced value is more common than added value. Our results suggest that new forecasting strategies and methods such as composite modeling may substantially improve forecast utility. Population Association of America, 1996 Tayman Jeff San Diego Association of Governments, 401 B. Street, Suite 800, 92101, San Diego, CA aut Swanson David Center for Population Research and Census, Portland State University, USA aut Demography Springer-Verlag 33/4(1996-11-01), 523-528 0070-3370 33:4<523 1996 33 13524 https://doi.org/10.2307/2061785 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.2307/2061785 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Tayman Jeff San Diego Association of Governments, 401 B. Street, Suite 800, 92101, San Diego, CA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Swanson David Center for Population Research and Census, Portland State University, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Demography Springer-Verlag 33/4(1996-11-01), 523-528 0070-3370 33:4<523 1996 33 13524 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer