caa a22 4500 477058531 CHVBK 20180405111353.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170330e19960301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/BF01874847 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/BF01874847 Henderson-Sellers A. Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne, Australia aut Can we integrate climatic modelling and assessment? [Elektronische Daten] [A. Henderson-Sellers] The climatic change "debate” seems to be expanding faster than the available information base. National and international response strategies (mitigation and adaptation) are being discussed in board rooms, governments and the media. Phrases like "the uncertainty in the scenarios” appear to carry meaning but the information seems to be, at best, incomplete and, at worst, totally debased by multiple definitions and usages. "Scenarios” are predictions of possible futures. The "(un)certainty” that characterizes them encompasses prejudices, perspectives, incompleteness of information as well as the differences in completeness, accuracy and sensitivity of different forecasting tools. (Un)certainty is the source of experimentation and learning but excessive (un)certainty is noise and so the search for a signal requires its reduction. This reduction process can both promote planning and co-ordination but also quash unconventional, but ultimately valuable, ideas. Balancing this tension across the modern, multifaceted climatic "divisions” of technology, training, information access, understanding, terminology, economic development, societal flexibility and social and political perceptions is difficult. The current dysfunctioning of the international climatic information "industry” demands improved communication among these diverse communities. This paper discusses some of the difficulties as perceived by a physical scientist turned "gatekeeper” and proposes a twofold strategy for improving the situation: a climatic change information exchange and an explicit recognition of the need for cyclic social co-operation among the participating groups. Baltzer Science Publishers, 1996 Climatic change nationallicence information sharing nationallicence assessment nationallicence modelling nationallicence impacts nationallicence scenarios nationallicence Environmental Modeling & Assessment Baltzer Science Publishers, Baarn/Kluwer Academic Publishers 1/1-2(1996-03-01), 59-70 1420-2026 1:1-2<59 1996 1 10666 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01874847 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01874847 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Henderson-Sellers A. Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Environmental Modeling & Assessment Baltzer Science Publishers, Baarn/Kluwer Academic Publishers 1/1-2(1996-03-01), 59-70 1420-2026 1:1-2<59 1996 1 10666 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer