caa a22 4500 477072984 CHVBK 20180405111431.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170330e19961201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/BF01413817 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/BF01413817 Swingler Kevin Centre for Cognitive and Computational Neuroscience, Stirling University, FK9 4LA, Stirling, Scotland aut Financial prediction: Some pointers, pitfalls and common errors [Elektronische Daten] [Kevin Swingler] There is growing interest both in the field of neural computing and in the financial world in the possibility of using neural networks to forecast the future changes in prices of stocks, exchange rates, commodities and other financial time series. Since networks have been shown to be capable of modelling the underlying structure of a time series, many attempts have been made at exploiting that capability in order to carry out a technical analysis of such prices. If the efficient markets hypothesis is true, however, there is no underlying structure to be modelled, and the whole endeavour is doomed to failure. This paper investigates the common methods for such an approach, and outlines the major pitfalls and common errors to avoid. The author hopes that by pointing out the possible pitfalls now, we can avoid making claims to the commercial world before we are properly ready to do so. Springer-Verlag London Limited, 1996 Efficient markets hypothesis nationallicence Financial forecasting nationallicence Recurrent networks nationallicence Result verification nationallicence Time delay neural networks nationallicence Time series analysis nationallicence Neural Computing & Applications Springer-Verlag 4/4(1996-12-01), 192-197 0941-0643 4:4<192 1996 4 521 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01413817 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01413817 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Swingler Kevin Centre for Cognitive and Computational Neuroscience, Stirling University, FK9 4LA, Stirling, Scotland aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Neural Computing & Applications Springer-Verlag 4/4(1996-12-01), 192-197 0941-0643 4:4<192 1996 4 521 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer