caa a22 4500 477075991 CHVBK 20180405111438.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170330e19960601xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/BF02514974 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/BF02514974 Cyclicity and synchrony of historical outbreaks of the beech caterpillar, Quadricalcarifera punctatella (Motschulsky) in Japan [Elektronische Daten] [Andrew Liebhold, Naoto Kamata, Thomas Jacob] Historical records of the incidence of defoliation caused by the beech caterpillar,Quadricalcarifera punctatella (Motschulsky) in northern Japanese prefectures from 1910-1993 were used to characterize the cyclicity and synchrony of outbreaks. Cyclicity and synchrony were quantified using standard Box-Jenkins time series methods as well as spectral analysis and simple Markov models. Statistical analysis of these records indicated the presence of quasi-periodic behavior with 8-11 yr between outbreaks. Outbreaks tended to occur synchronously among different prefectures, though the onset of outbreaks was typically lagged. This study illustrates the use of specific statistical methods for characterizing cyclicity and synchrony from crude records of the presence/absence of outbreaks. Society of Population Ecology, 1996 cyclicity nationallicence synchrony nationallicence time series nationallicence spectral analysis nationallicence autocorrelation function nationallicence Markov model nationallicence Liebhold Andrew Northeastern Forest Experiment Station, USDA Forest Service, 180 Canfield St., 26505, Morgantown, WV, USA aut Kamata Naoto Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Tohoku Research Center, Nabeyashiki 72, Shimokuriyagawa, Morioka, 020-01, Iwate, Japan aut Jacob Thomas Northeastern Forest Experiment Station, USDA Forest Service, P.O. Box 6775, 19087-8775, Radnor, PA, USA aut Researches on Population Ecology Springer-Verlag 38/1(1996-06-01), 87-94 0034-5466 38:1<87 1996 38 10144 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02514974 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02514974 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Liebhold Andrew Northeastern Forest Experiment Station, USDA Forest Service, 180 Canfield St., 26505, Morgantown, WV, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kamata Naoto Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Tohoku Research Center, Nabeyashiki 72, Shimokuriyagawa, Morioka, 020-01, Iwate, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Jacob Thomas Northeastern Forest Experiment Station, USDA Forest Service, P.O. Box 6775, 19087-8775, Radnor, PA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Researches on Population Ecology Springer-Verlag 38/1(1996-06-01), 87-94 0034-5466 38:1<87 1996 38 10144 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer