caa a22 4500 477076181 CHVBK 20180405111439.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170330e19961201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/BF02515720 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/BF02515720 Turchin Peter Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, 06269-3042, Storrs, CT, USA aut Nonlinear time-series modeling of vole population fluctuations [Elektronische Daten] [Peter Turchin] A central goal of population ecology is to understand and predict fluctuations in population numbers. Until recently, much of the debate focused on the issue of population regulation by density-dependent factors. In this paper, I describe an approach to nonlinear modeling of time-series data that is designed to go beyond this question by investigating the possibility of complex population dynamics, characterized by lags in regulation and periodic or chaotic oscillations. The questions motivating this approach are: what are relative contributions of endogenousvs. exogenous components of dynamics? Is the irregular component in fluctuations entirely due to exogenous noise, or do nonlinearities contribute to it, too? I describe the philosophy and the technical details of the nonlinear modeling approach, and then apply it to a collection of time-series data on vole population fluctuations in northern Europe. The results suggest that population dynamics of European voles undergo a latitudinal shift from stability to chaos. Dynamics in northern Fennoscandia are characterized by positive Lyapunov exponent estimates, and a high degree of short-term (one year ahead) predictability, suggesting a strong endogenous component. In more southerly populations estimated Lyapunov exponents are negative, and there is no one-step ahead predictability, suggesting that fluctuations are driven by exogenous factors. Society of Population Ecology, 1996 chaos nationallicence nonlinear dynamics nationallicence population oscillations nationallicence stability nationallicence time-series analysis nationallicence vole nationallicence Researches on Population Ecology Springer-Verlag 38/2(1996-12-01), 121-132 0034-5466 38:2<121 1996 38 10144 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02515720 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02515720 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Turchin Peter Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, 06269-3042, Storrs, CT, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Researches on Population Ecology Springer-Verlag 38/2(1996-12-01), 121-132 0034-5466 38:2<121 1996 38 10144 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer