caa a22 4500 477077803 CHVBK 20180405111443.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170330e19960701xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/BF00130413 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/BF00130413 The 1992, 1994 and 1996 elections: A comment and a forecast [Elektronische Daten] [Alberto Alesina, John Londregan, Howard Rosenthal] A model of the two-way relationship between elections and the economy, previously estimated on historical data for 1916-1988, is applied to the United States elections of 1992, 1994, and 1996. The 1992 result was a surprise to the model since the economy had performed reasonably well that election year. The midterm elections of 1994 were accurately forecast. The Republicans took control of Congress not because of unusual circumstances but because of a normal midterm cycle. President Clinton's chances in 1996 look dim given the current modest growth rate and an electoral bias favoring Republican presidential candidates. But an alternative model, keyed more to the voters choosing Clinton to balance the Republican Congress, gives him a reasonable chance of reelection. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1996 Alesina Alberto Department of Economics, Harvard University, 02139, Cambridge, MA aut Londregan John Department of Political Science, UCLA, 90095-1472, Los Angeles, CA aut Rosenthal Howard Department of Politics, Princeton University, 08544-1012, Princeton, NJ aut Public Choice Kluwer Academic Publishers; http://www.wkap.nl 88/1-2(1996-07-01), 115-125 0048-5829 88:1-2<115 1996 88 11127 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00130413 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 review-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00130413 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Alesina Alberto Department of Economics, Harvard University, 02139, Cambridge, MA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Londregan John Department of Political Science, UCLA, 90095-1472, Los Angeles, CA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Rosenthal Howard Department of Politics, Princeton University, 08544-1012, Princeton, NJ aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Public Choice Kluwer Academic Publishers; http://www.wkap.nl 88/1-2(1996-07-01), 115-125 0048-5829 88:1-2<115 1996 88 11127 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer