caa a22 4500 477092314 CHVBK 20180405111518.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170330e19960801xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/BF02589171 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/BF02589171 Battipaglia P. Research Department, Bank of Italy, Italy aut A comparison of indicators for evaluating x-11-arima seasonal adjustment [Elektronische Daten] [P. Battipaglia] Summary: The evaluation of the performance of seasonal adjustment procedures is an issue of practical importance in view of the unobservable nature of the components. Looking at just one indicator when judging the overall quality of a procedure may be misleading, even though this is common practice when many series are involved. The main purpose of this paper is to compare the information content of different synthetic indicators with reference to the X-11-ARIMA procedure. Sixty-six different types of monthly seasonal series are generated and the seasonal component then extracted by carrying out X-11-ARIMA with standard options. The correlation between the pseudo-true error for each series and various synthetic indicators allows us to compare the latter's reliability, under both the hypotheses of minimum and maximum variance of the pseudo-true seasonal component. We show that the overall quality indexQ-the indicator most commonly adopted by users of the X-11-ARIMA-is always outperformed by the simpler diagnostics based on the stability of the estimates. In particular, the "sliding-spans” indicator, proposed by Findley et al. (1990) and included in the diagnostics of the new X-12 procedure, shows a much stronger correlation with the pseudo-true error in the seasonal adjustment. We also show that the total forecasting errors in the one-year-ahead extrapolation of the seasonal component have a good informative power and perform almost as well as the "sliding-spans” indicator. Società Italiana di Statistica, 1996 Journal of the Italian Statistical Society Springer-Verlag 5/2(1996-08-01), 179-202 1121-9130 5:2<179 1996 5 10260 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02589171 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02589171 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Battipaglia P. Research Department, Bank of Italy, Italy aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Journal of the Italian Statistical Society Springer-Verlag 5/2(1996-08-01), 179-202 1121-9130 5:2<179 1996 5 10260 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer