naa a22 4500 510762581 CHVBK 20180411083144.0 cr unu---uuuuu 180411e20130101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11355-011-0183-y doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11355-011-0183-y Influence of nonclimatic factors on the habitat prediction of tree species and an assessment of the impact of climate change [Elektronische Daten] [Motoki Higa, Ikutaro Tsuyama, Katsuhiro Nakao, Etsuko Nakazono, Tetsuya Matsui, Nobuyuki Tanaka] To determine the influence of nonclimatic factors on predicting the habitats of tree species and an assessment of climate change impacts over a broad geographical extent at about 1km resolution, we investigated the predictive performance for models with climatic factors only (C-models) and models with climatic and nonclimatic factors (CN-models) using seven tree species in Japan that exhibit different ecological characteristics such as habitat preference and successional traits. Using a generalized additive model, the prediction performance was compared by prediction accuracy [area under the operating characteristic curve (AUC)], goodness of fit, and potential habitat maps. The results showed that the CN-models had higher predictive accuracy, higher goodness of fit, smaller empty habitats, and more finely defined borders of potential habitat than those of the C-models for all seven species. The degree of the total contribution of the nonclimatic variables to prediction performance also varied among the seven species. These results suggest that nonclimatic factors also play an important role in predicting species occurrence when measured to this extent and resolution, that the magnitude of model improvement is larger for species with specific habitat preferences, and that the C-models cannot predict the land-related habitats that exist for almost all species. Climate change impacts were overestimated by C-models for all species. Therefore, C-model outcomes may lead to locally ambiguous assessment of the impact of climate change on species distribution. CN-models provide a more accurate and detailed assessment for conservation planning. International Consortium of Landscape and Ecological Engineering and Springer, 2011 Broad geographical extent nationallicence Fine spatial resolution nationallicence Habitat preference nationallicence Predictive performance nationallicence Species distribution model nationallicence Higa Motoki Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1 Matsunosato, 305-8687, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut Tsuyama Ikutaro Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1 Matsunosato, 305-8687, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut Nakao Katsuhiro Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1 Matsunosato, 305-8687, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut Nakazono Etsuko Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1 Matsunosato, 305-8687, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut Matsui Tetsuya Hokkaido Research Station, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 7 Hitsujigaoka Toyohira-ku, 026-8516, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan aut Tanaka Nobuyuki Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1 Matsunosato, 305-8687, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut Landscape and Ecological Engineering Springer Japan 9/1(2013-01-01), 111-120 1860-1871 9:1<111 2013 9 11355 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11355-011-0183-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11355-011-0183-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Higa Motoki Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1 Matsunosato, 305-8687, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Tsuyama Ikutaro Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1 Matsunosato, 305-8687, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Nakao Katsuhiro Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1 Matsunosato, 305-8687, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Nakazono Etsuko Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1 Matsunosato, 305-8687, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Matsui Tetsuya Hokkaido Research Station, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 7 Hitsujigaoka Toyohira-ku, 026-8516, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Tanaka Nobuyuki Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1 Matsunosato, 305-8687, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Landscape and Ecological Engineering Springer Japan 9/1(2013-01-01), 111-120 1860-1871 9:1<111 2013 9 11355 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer