naa a22 4500 510775381 CHVBK 20180411083228.0 cr unu---uuuuu 180411e20130701xx s 000 0 eng 10.1134/S1075700713040023 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1134/S1075700713040023 Scenario modeling of the stability of the russian budget system against external economic shocks in 2013-2015 [Elektronische Daten] [I. Frolov, S. Makedonskii, A. Shirov] The results of forecast modeling of the Russian budget system's stability against external economic shocks are presented in the paper. Two scenarios are considered: Scenario 1 or "short-term crisis” with its acute phase lasting about three quarters (similarly to the crisis of 2008-2009) and Scenario 2 or "protracted crisis,” which implies a duration of crisis phenomena of about a year and a half (to put it hypothetically, in 2013-2014). On the basis of the scenario forecast modeling results, the conclusion is drawn that regional budgets are the weakest link of the Russian budget system. The crisis period is characterized by an urgent necessity of handing over a part of tax revenues received by the federal budget to the regional level and increasing money transfers to the budgets of federal subjects. Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2013 Frolov I. Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia aut Makedonskii S. Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia aut Shirov A. Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia aut Studies on Russian Economic Development Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 24/4(2013-07-01), 324-335 1075-7007 24:4<324 2013 24 11507 https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700713040023 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700713040023 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Frolov I. Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Makedonskii S. Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Shirov A. Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Studies on Russian Economic Development Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 24/4(2013-07-01), 324-335 1075-7007 24:4<324 2013 24 11507 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer