naa a22 4500 510776884 CHVBK 20180411083233.0 cr unu---uuuuu 180411e20130901xx s 000 0 eng 10.3758/s13428-012-0282-1 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.3758/s13428-012-0282-1 Bayesian estimates of autocorrelations in single-case designs [Elektronische Daten] [William Shadish, David Rindskopf, Larry Hedges, Kristynn Sullivan] Researchers in the single-case design tradition have debated the size and importance of the observed autocorrelations in those designs. All of the past estimates of the autocorrelation in that literature have taken the observed autocorrelation estimates as the data to be used in the debate. However, estimates of the autocorrelation are subject to great sampling error when the design has a small number of time points, as is typically the situation in single-case designs. Thus, a given observed autocorrelation may greatly over- or underestimate the corresponding population parameter. This article presents Bayesian estimates of the autocorrelation that greatly reduce the role of sampling error, as compared to past estimators. Simpler empirical Bayes estimates are presented first, in order to illustrate the fundamental notions of autocorrelation sampling error and shrinkage, followed by fully Bayesian estimates, and the difference between the two is explained. Scripts to do the analyses are available as supplemental materials. The analyses are illustrated using two examples from the single-case design literature. Bayesian estimation warrants wider use, not only in debates about the size of autocorrelations, but also in statistical methods that require an independent estimate of the autocorrelation to analyze the data. Psychonomic Society, Inc., 2012 Bayesian estimation nationallicence Autocorrelation nationallicence Single-case designs nationallicence Shadish William School of Social Sciences, Humanities and Arts, University of California, Merced, 5200 North Lake Rd, 95343, Merced, CA, USA aut Rindskopf David Graduate Center, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA aut Hedges Larry Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA aut Sullivan Kristynn School of Social Sciences, Humanities and Arts, University of California, Merced, 5200 North Lake Rd, 95343, Merced, CA, USA aut Behavior Research Methods Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 45/3(2013-09-01), 813-821 45:3<813 2013 45 13428 https://doi.org/10.3758/s13428-012-0282-1 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.3758/s13428-012-0282-1 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Shadish William School of Social Sciences, Humanities and Arts, University of California, Merced, 5200 North Lake Rd, 95343, Merced, CA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Rindskopf David Graduate Center, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hedges Larry Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Sullivan Kristynn School of Social Sciences, Humanities and Arts, University of California, Merced, 5200 North Lake Rd, 95343, Merced, CA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Behavior Research Methods Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 45/3(2013-09-01), 813-821 45:3<813 2013 45 13428 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer