naa a22 4500 52878188X 20180924065512.0 cr unu---uuuuu 180924e201808 xx s 000 0 eng 10.3929/ethz-b-000275147 doi 10.1111/gcb.14094 doi (ETHRESEARCH)oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/275147 Prediction of enteric methane production, yield, and intensity in dairy cattle using an intercontinental database [Elektronische Daten] [Mutian Niu, Ermias Kebreab, Alexander N. Hristov, Joonpyo Oh, Claudia Arndt, André Bannink, Ali R. Bayat, André F. Brito, Tommy Boland, David Casper, Les A. Crompton, Jan Dijkstra, Maguy Eugène, Phil C. Garnsworthy, Najmul Haque, Anne L.F. Hellwing, Pekka J. Huhtanen, Michael Kreuzer, Björn Kuhla, Peter Lund, Jørgen Madsen, Cécile Martin, Shelby C. McClelland, Mark McGee, Peter J. Moate, Stefan Muetzel, Camila Muñoz, Padraig O'Kiely, Nico Peiren, Christopher K. Reynolds, Angela; id_orcid 0000-0002-5750-2111 Schwarm, Kevin J. Shingfield, Tonje M. Storlien, Martin R. Weisbjerg, David R. Yáñez Ruiz, Zhongtang Yu] Glob. chang. biol. Open access ethresearch Enteric methane (CH4) production from cattle contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions. Measurement of enteric CH4 is complex, expensive, and impractical at large scales; therefore, models are commonly used to predict CH4 production. However, building robust prediction models requires extensive data from animals under different management systems worldwide. The objectives of this study were to (1) collate a global database of enteric CH4 production from individual lactating dairy cattle; (2) determine the availability of key variables for predicting enteric CH4 production (g/day per cow), yield [g/kg dry matter intake (DMI)], and intensity (g/kg energy corrected milk) and their respective relationships; (3) develop intercontinental and regional models and cross‐validate their performance; and (4) assess the trade‐off between availability of on‐farm inputs and CH4 prediction accuracy. The intercontinental database covered Europe (EU), the United States (US), and Australia (AU). A sequential approach was taken by incrementally adding key variables to develop models with increasing complexity. Methane emissions were predicted by fitting linear mixed models. Within model categories, an intercontinental model with the most available independent variables performed best with root mean square prediction error (RMSPE) as a percentage of mean observed value of 16.6%, 14.7%, and 19.8% for intercontinental, EU, and United States regions, respectively. Less complex models requiring only DMI had predictive ability comparable to complex models. Enteric CH4 production, yield, and intensity prediction models developed on an intercontinental basis had similar performance across regions, however, intercepts and slopes were different with implications for prediction. Revised CH4 emission conversion factors for specific regions are required to improve CH4 production estimates in national inventories. In conclusion, information on DMI is required for good prediction, and other factors such as dietary neutral detergent fiber (NDF) concentration, improve the prediction. For enteric CH4 yield and intensity prediction, information on milk yield and composition is required for better estimation. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 ethresearch dairy cows ethresearch Dry matter intake ethresearch enteric methane emissions ethresearch methane intensity ethresearch methane yield ethresearch prediction models ethresearch Niu Mutian joint author Kebreab Ermias joint author Hristov Alexander N. joint author Oh Joonpyo joint author Arndt Claudia joint author Bannink André joint author Bayat Ali R. joint author Brito André F. joint author Boland Tommy joint author Casper David joint author Crompton Les A. joint author Dijkstra Jan joint author Eugène Maguy joint author Garnsworthy Phil C. joint author Haque Najmul joint author Hellwing Anne L.F. joint author Huhtanen Pekka J. joint author Kreuzer Michael joint author Kuhla Björn joint author Lund Peter joint author Madsen Jørgen joint author Martin Cécile joint author McClelland Shelby C. joint author McGee Mark joint author Moate Peter J. joint author Muetzel Stefan joint author Muñoz Camila joint author O'Kiely Padraig joint author Peiren Nico joint author Reynolds Christopher K. joint author Schwarm Angela; id_orcid 0000-0002-5750-2111 joint author Shingfield Kevin J. joint author Storlien Tonje M. joint author Weisbjerg Martin R. joint author Yáñez Ruiz David R. joint author Yu Zhongtang joint author Global Change Biology Oxford : Wiley 24 (8), pp. 3368-3389 1354-1013 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/275147 text/html WWW-Backlink auf das Repository (Open access) 1 Journal Article ethresearch ETHRESEARCH 856 40 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/275147 text/html WWW-Backlink auf das Repository (Open access) ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Niu Mutian joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Kebreab Ermias joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Hristov Alexander N. joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Oh Joonpyo joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Arndt Claudia joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Bannink André joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Bayat Ali R. joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Brito André F. joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Boland Tommy joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Casper David joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Crompton Les A. joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Dijkstra Jan joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Eugène Maguy joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Garnsworthy Phil C. joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Haque Najmul joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Hellwing Anne L.F. joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Huhtanen Pekka J. joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Kreuzer Michael joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Kuhla Björn joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Lund Peter joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Madsen Jørgen joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Martin Cécile joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- McClelland Shelby C. joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- McGee Mark joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Moate Peter J. joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Muetzel Stefan joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Muñoz Camila joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- O'Kiely Padraig joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Peiren Nico joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Reynolds Christopher K. joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Schwarm Angela; id_orcid 0000-0002-5750-2111 joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Shingfield Kevin J. joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Storlien Tonje M. joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Weisbjerg Martin R. joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Yáñez Ruiz David R. joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Yu Zhongtang joint author ETHRESEARCH 773 0- Global Change Biology Oxford : Wiley 24 (8), pp. 3368-3389 1354-1013 BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 ETHRESEARCH ETHRESEARCH ETHRESEARCH Journal Article Open access