naa a22 4500 528784544 20180924065517.0 cr unu---uuuuu 180924e20120719xx s 000 0 eng 10.3929/ethz-b-000057376 doi 10.1371/journal.pone.0040014 doi (ETHRESEARCH)oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/57376 Web Search Queries Can Predict Stock Market Volumes [Elektronische Daten] [Ilaria Bordino, Stefano Battiston, Guido Caldarelli, Matthieu Cristelli, Antti Ukkonen, Ingmar Weber] PLoS ONE Open access ethresearch We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0 ethresearch Bordino Ilaria joint author Battiston Stefano joint author Caldarelli Guido joint author Cristelli Matthieu joint author Ukkonen Antti joint author Weber Ingmar joint author PLoS ONE Lawrence, KS, USA : Public Library of Science 7 (7), p. e40014 1932-6203 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/57376 text/html WWW-Backlink auf das Repository (Open access) 1 Journal Article ethresearch ETHRESEARCH 856 40 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/57376 text/html WWW-Backlink auf das Repository (Open access) ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Bordino Ilaria joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Battiston Stefano joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Caldarelli Guido joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Cristelli Matthieu joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Ukkonen Antti joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Weber Ingmar joint author ETHRESEARCH 773 0- PLoS ONE Lawrence, KS, USA : Public Library of Science 7 (7), p. e40014 1932-6203 BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 ETHRESEARCH ETHRESEARCH ETHRESEARCH Journal Article Open access