caa a22 4500 528786598 20181217030316.0 cr unu---uuuuu 180924e20151116xx s 000 0 eng 10.3929/ethz-b-000106913 doi 10.1038/srep16571 doi (ETHRESEARCH)oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/106913 Disease-induced resource constraints can trigger explosive epidemics [Elektronische Daten] [Lucas Böttcher, Olivia Woolley-Meza, Nuno A.M. Araújo, Hans J. Herrmann, Dirk Helbing] Sci Rep Open access ethresearch Advances in mathematical epidemiology have led to a better understanding of the risks posed by epidemic spreading and informed strategies to contain disease spread. However, a challenge that has been overlooked is that, as a disease becomes more prevalent, it can limit the availability of the capital needed to effectively treat those who have fallen ill. Here we use a simple mathematical model to gain insight into the dynamics of an epidemic when the recovery of sick individuals depends on the availability of healing resources that are generated by the healthy population. We find that epidemics spiral out of control into "explosive” spread if the cost of recovery is above a critical cost. This can occur even when the disease would die out without the resource constraint. The onset of explosive epidemics is very sudden, exhibiting a discontinuous transition under very general assumptions. We find analytical expressions for the critical cost and the size of the explosive jump in infection levels in terms of the parameters that characterize the spreading process. Our model and results apply beyond epidemics to contagion dynamics that self-induce constraints on recovery, thereby amplifying the spreading process. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 ethresearch Applied mathematics ethresearch Complex networks ethresearch Computational models ethresearch Epidemiology ethresearch Böttcher Lucas joint author Woolley-Meza Olivia joint author Araújo Nuno A.M. joint author Herrmann Hans J. joint author Helbing Dirk joint author Scientific Reports London : Nature Publishing Group 5, p. 16571 2045-2322 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/106913 text/html WWW-Backlink auf das Repository (Open access) 1 Journal Article ethresearch ETHRESEARCH 856 40 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/106913 text/html WWW-Backlink auf das Repository (Open access) ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Böttcher Lucas joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Woolley-Meza Olivia joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Araújo Nuno A.M. joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Herrmann Hans J. joint author ETHRESEARCH 700 1- Helbing Dirk joint author ETHRESEARCH 773 0- Scientific Reports London : Nature Publishing Group 5, p. 16571 2045-2322 BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 ETHRESEARCH ETHRESEARCH ETHRESEARCH Journal Article Open access