nad a22 4500 55132791X 20181213063035.0 cr unu---uuuuu 181213s2018 xx s 000 0 eng 10.5167/uzh-159516 doi 10.1017/s0020818318000255 doi (ZORA)oai:www.zora.uzh.ch:159516 320 ddc Noncooperation by popular vote: expectations, foreign intervention, and the vote in the 2015 Greek bailout referendum [Elektronische Daten] [Stefanie Walter, Elias Dinas, Ignacio Jurado, Nikitas Konstantinidis] closedAccess eu-repo When popular referendums fail to ratify new international agreements or succeed in reversing existing ones, it not only affects domestic voters but also creates negative spillovers for the other parties to such agreements. We explore how voters respond to this strategic environment. We use original survey data from a poll fielded just one day before the 2015 Greek bailout referendum—a referendum in which the stakes for other countries were particularly high—to investigate how expectations about the likely foreign response to a noncooperative referendum outcome influence voting behavior and to what extent foreign policymakers can influence those expectations. Our analysis of the Greek referendum shows that such expectations had a powerful effect on voting behavior: voters expecting that a noncooperative referendum outcome would force Greece to leave the eurozone were substantially more likely to vote cooperatively than those believing that it would result in renewed negotiations with the country's creditors. Leveraging the bank closure that took place right before the vote, we also show that costly signals by foreign actors made voters more pessimistic about the consequences of a noncooperative vote and substantially increased the share of cooperative votes. Institute of Political Science zora political science and international relations, organizational behavior and human resource management, sociology and political science, law zora Walter Stefanie joint author Dinas Elias joint author Jurado Ignacio joint author Konstantinidis Nikitas joint author International Organization 72(4):969-994 https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/159516/1/ZORA159516.pdf text/html WWW-Backlink auf das Repository 1 Journal Article PeerReviewed zora ZORA 856 40 https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/159516/1/ZORA159516.pdf text/html WWW-Backlink auf das Repository ZORA 700 1- Walter Stefanie joint author ZORA 700 1- Dinas Elias joint author ZORA 700 1- Jurado Ignacio joint author ZORA 700 1- Konstantinidis Nikitas joint author ZORA 773 0- International Organization 72(4):969-994 SWISSBIB 438151909 BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 ZORA ZORA ZORA Journal Article closedAccess