cam a22 4500 551397012 CHVBK 20201114040113.0 m d cr |n |||||||| 161215t20162016nyuab sb 001 0 eng d 2016298129 978-0-19-060364-9 (hardcover) 0-19-060364-X (hardcover) (SERSOL)ssj0001758372 (WaSeSS)ssj0001758372 BTCTA eng BTCTA YDXCP BDX OCLCQ YDX OCLCO GZN OCLCO ORU MYG OCLCO VGM WAU OCLCO DLC WaSeSS rda eng fre JZ1242 .C6346 2016 327.072 23 Colonomos Ariel author Politique des oracles. English Selling the future the perils of predicting global politics Ariel Colonomos ; translated by Gregory Elliott New York, NY Oxford University Press [2016] ©2016 1 online resource (xiv, 225 pages) illustrations, maps text txt rdacontent/eng computer c rdamedia/eng online resource cr rdacarrier/eng The series in comparative politics and international studies Includes bibliographical references (pages 195-217) and indexes. Introduction: The Future on Stage -- 1. At the Centre of the World: Oracles, Seers and Prophets -- 2. Telling the Future Today -- 3. The Blinkers of the Social Sciences -- 4. Engineering the World -- 5. The Risk Market: Credit Ratings -- 6. Right and Wrong Futures -- 7. Responsibility for the Future -- 8. The Future of Norms -- The Ultimate Delphic Paradox: The Veil of Finitude. Lizenzbedingungen können den Zugang einschränken. License restrictions may limit access. "In an age of uncertainty, those who can anticipate revolution, the outbreak of wars, or which states might default are much in demand. The marketplace of ideas about the future is huge, and includes 'wonks', scholars and pundits who produce scenarios, predictions and ratings. The more opaque the future seems to be, so the relation between knowledge and power intensifies, above all the nexus between those who sell their expertise and those who consume it. In his investigation of the paradoxes of forecasting, Ariel Colonomos interrogates today's knowledge factories to reveal how our futures are shaped by social scientists, think tanks and rating agencies. He explains why conservative and linear predictions prevail, and why the future, especially when linked to national interest, reflects a systematic search for stability. The notion of a globalized world whose main characteristic is speed, and where predictions have accelerating, self-fulfilling effects, is obsolete. Those who are supposed to know, reassure those who are supposed to act. Their preferences converge, and thus the industry of the future has a decelerating effect on world politics. These 'lords of knowledge' reinforce pre-existing beliefs, create expectations about the future, while obstructing its vision when -- inevitably -- it diverges from its orderly path"--Provided by publisher. Translated from the French. Forecasting Political aspects Economic forecasting Political aspects International relations Forecasting World politics 21st century Forecasting Social prediction Political aspects Elliott Gregory translator https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190603649.001.0001/acprof-9780190603649 Uni Bern: Volltext BK020053 XK020053 XK020000 Oxford Scholarship Online Political Science Oxford Scholarship Online E-Books von 360MarcUpdates IDSBB B405 B405 405VT IDSBB 100 1- Colonomos Ariel author IDSBB 240 1- Politique des oracles English IDSBB 490 1- The series in comparative politics and international studies IDSBB 700 1- Elliott Gregory translator IDSBB 856 40 https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190603649.001.0001/acprof-9780190603649 Uni Bern: Volltext SWISSBIB 483109959