nad a22 4500 555301265 20190206082733.0 cr unu---uuuuu 190206s2019 xx s 000 0 eng 10.5167/uzh-161787 doi 10.1111/ele.13195 doi (ZORA)oai:www.zora.uzh.ch:161787 570 ddc 590 ddc The diversity of population responses to environmental change [Elektronische Daten] [Fernando Colchero, OwenR Jones, Dalia A Conde, David Hodgson, et al, Benedikt R Schmidt, Stefan Dummermuth, Thomas Flatt] openAccess eu-repo The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever‐greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well‐advanced theory of age‐structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age‐dependency in demographic rates and the year‐to‐year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age‐specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage‐ vs. age‐based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival‐fecundity‐trade‐offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age‐specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct. Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies zora ecology, evolution, environmental change zora Colchero Fernando joint author Jones OwenR joint author Conde Dalia A. joint author Hodgson David joint author et al joint author Schmidt Benedikt R. joint author Dummermuth Stefan joint author Flatt Thomas joint author Regan Helen ctb Regan H ( Helen ). Helen ctb Ecology Letters 22:342-353 https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/161787/1/colchero_etal2019diversity_population_responses_environmental_change.pdf text/html WWW-Backlink auf das Repository Onlinezugriff via WWW text/html https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.13195 ZORA 1 Journal Article PeerReviewed zora EC/FP7/249872 zora grantAgreement ZORA 856 40 https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/161787/1/colchero_etal2019diversity_population_responses_environmental_change.pdf text/html WWW-Backlink auf das Repository ZORA 856 42 Onlinezugriff via WWW text/html https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.13195 ZORA 700 1- Colchero Fernando joint author ZORA 700 1- Jones OwenR joint author ZORA 700 1- Conde Dalia A. joint author ZORA 700 1- Hodgson David joint author ZORA 700 -- et al joint author ZORA 700 1- Schmidt Benedikt R. joint author ZORA 700 1- Dummermuth Stefan joint author ZORA 700 1- Flatt Thomas joint author ZORA 700 1- Regan Helen ctb ZORA 700 1- Regan H ( Helen ). Helen ctb ZORA 773 0- Ecology Letters 22:342-353 BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 ZORA ZORA ZORA Journal Article openAccess