cam a22 4 4500 569280524 CHVBK 20201202100955.0 190725s2018 sz a m 00 0deng d urn:nbn:ch:bel-1571659 urn (SNL)991017971608703976 (SNL)991018070426703976 (NEBIS)011424291 (Sz)991017971608703976 (Sz)991018070426703976 Sz ger rda eng eng ger 550 23sdnb Monhart Samuel 1985- (DE-588)1187766356 Verfasser aut Towards operational subseasonal hydrometeorological ensemble predictions in mountainous catchments presented by Samuel Monhart Zurich 2018 viii, 148 Seiten Illustrationen 30 cm Dissertation No. 25496 ETH Zurich, 2018 Literaturverzeichnis application/pdf Subseasonal hydrometeorological predictions have received increasing attention within the last decades. Significant advances in meteorological ensemble forecasting have led to skilful predictions of meteorological variables beyond the medium-range forecast horizon. Using these meteorological ensemble forecasts to force hydrological models can provide valuable probabilistic streamflow forecasts. Such predictions at the subseasonal time horizon can have a great impact for planning purposes in various economic and public sectors. Currently, the scientific basis for the predictability of subseasonal forecasts is being investigated and various meteorological organizations are running numerical weather predictions models for the subseasonal time-scale. In order to improve our knowledge to predict streamflows in small to medium sized mountainous catchments at the subseasonal time scales this PhD thesis focuses on the interface between the meteorological and the hydrological predictions and the assessment of the performance thereof. Thus, the current state of subseasonal hydrometeorological predictions is explored and statistical bias correction and downscaling methods are investigated to optimally combine meteorological and hydrological prediction models bridging the gap of application scales. Furthermore, a hydropower optimization system making use of the resulting streamflow predictions has been explored. In a first step the historical forecasts from subseasonal ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System have been analysed in terms of their performance to predict temperature and precipitation at 1637 measurement stations across Europe. Aside of the uncorrected direct model output, different post-processing techniques have been applied and their effect on the forecast performance is analysed. The results clearly demonstrate the need for post-processing the subseasonal predictions to achieve skilful subseasonal forecast for point observations. Post-processed forecasts indicate positive skill with respect to climatology for up to 19-25 days lead time (corresponding to forecast week 3) in case of weekly mean temperature. Forecast skills of weekly precipitation sums stay positive up to 5-11 days lead time (corresponding to forecast week 1) and clearly outperform the uncorrected forecasts. These statistically corrected subseasonal meteorological predictions with daily resolution are used to generate streamflow forecasts with the hydrological model PREAVH in small to medium size mountainous catchments (with areas between 80 and 1700 km2) of different hydroclimatic characteristics. Furthermore, the performance of the resulting streamflow forecasts is compared with the forecast performance of a traditional ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) approach based on historical meteorological observations. The study clearly demonstrates the superiority of the subseasonal NWP-hydro prediction system. It is found that the benefits are most pronounced in the snow-dominated catchments and this underlines the importance of snow-related processes in subseasonal hydrometeorological predictions. In an additional analysis, the ensemble streamflow predictions were assessed in terms of their benefits for water resource management. To this end, the uncorrected meteorological predictions are used to generate streamflow forecasts and the effect of different hydrological post-processing techniques on the forecast performance is analysed. Besides the total runoff itself, multiple hydrologically relevant variables are analysed for 370 sub-catchments covering entire Switzerland: areal catchment precipitation, total baseflow and soil moisture storage. The results stress the importance of persistence and memory effects on the performance of streamflow forecasts. Subsurface processes were found to show a delayed response of one week in forecast performance. This can be of particular importance for applications in water resource management. Finally, the resulting subseasonal ensemble streamflow predictions were used in a hydropower optimization setup in the Swiss Alps to further assess the potential of the forecast in terms of their economic value. We found that the gain in forecast performance can indeed further translate into monetary benefits, i.e. economic value of a forecast. Depending on the optimization scheme used, the average additional gain of up to 4% could be expected in terms of revenues if such predictions were used in an operational manner instead of the climatological predictions (corresponding to an increase of 0.2 Mio EUR/yr in the Verzasca catchment investigated in this study). Englischer Text mit englischer und deutscher Zusammenfassung BERGGEBIETE + GEBIRGSREGIONEN (RAUMPLANUNG) ger (ETHUDK)000048247 ethudk ECMWF, EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS (METEOROLOGIE) ger (ETHUDK)000064875 ethudk HYDROLOGISCHE MODELLE + HYDROLOGISCHE MODELLRECHNUNG ger (ETHUDK)000020793 ethudk HYDROLOGISCHE VORHERSAGE, PROGNOSE ger (ETHUDK)000020795 ethudk HYDROMETEOROLOGIE ger (ETHUDK)000020406 ethudk METEOROLOGISCHE VORHERSAGE (METEOROLOGIE) ger (ETHUDK)000020260 ethudk NIEDERSCHLAG-ABFLUSSVERHÄLTNIS (HYDROLOGIE) ger (ETHUDK)000020817 ethudk SCHWEIZ (MITTELEUROPA). SCHWEIZERISCHE EIDGENOSSENSCHAF) ger (ETHUDK)000004571 ethudk WASSERABFLUSS (HYDROLOGIE) ger (ETHUDK)000020815 ethudk WASSERHAUSHALT VON EINZUGSGEBIETEN, FLUSSGEBIETEN (HYDROLOGIE) ger (ETHUDK)000020850 ethudk Hochschulschrift (DE-588)4113937-9 gnd-content Hochschulschrift gnd-content sb 2019/15 550 zh snl-sb xehelv xediss 2020 550 snl ehelv u HYDROMETEOROLOGIE ger 551.579 nebis E1 u HYDROLOGISCHE MODELLE + HYDROLOGISCHE MODELLRECHNUNG ger 556.001.57 nebis E1 u HYDROLOGISCHE VORHERSAGE, PROGNOSE ger 556.06 nebis E1 u WASSERABFLUSS (HYDROLOGIE) ger 556.16 nebis E1 u METEOROLOGISCHE VORHERSAGE (METEOROLOGIE) ger 551.509.2 nebis E1 u ECMWF, EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS (METEOROLOGIE) ger 551.506.24*11 nebis E1 u WASSERHAUSHALT VON EINZUGSGEBIETEN, FLUSSGEBIETEN (HYDROLOGIE) ger 556.512 nebis E1 u NIEDERSCHLAG-ABFLUSSVERHÄLTNIS (HYDROLOGIE) ger 556.161 nebis E1 u BERGGEBIETE + GEBIRGSREGIONEN (RAUMPLANUNG) ger 711.9(23.0) nebis E1 u SCHWEIZ (MITTELEUROPA). SCHWEIZERISCHE EIDGENOSSENSCHAFT ger (494) nebis E1 u HYDROMÉTÉOROLOGIE fre 551.579 nebis E1 u HYDROMETEOROLOGY eng 551.579 nebis E1 u HYDROLOGICAL MODELS + MATHEMATICAL MODELLING IN HYDROLOGY eng 556.001.57 nebis E1 u MODÈLES HYDROLOGIQUES + MODÉLISATION MATHÉMATIQUE EN HYDROLOGIE fre 556.001.57 nebis E1 u PREVISIONS HYDROLOGIQUES fre 556.06 nebis E1 u HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING eng 556.06 nebis E1 u ÉCOULEMENT DES EAUX (HYDROLOGIE) fre 556.16 nebis E1 u RUNOFF (HYDROLOGY) eng 556.16 nebis E1 u METEOROLOGICAL REPORTS/WEATHER-FORECAST (METEOROLOGY) eng 551.509.2 nebis E1 u BULLETINS MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES/PREVISION DU TEMPS (MÉTÉOROLOGIE) fre 551.509.2 nebis E1 u ECMWF, EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS (METEOROLOGY) eng 551.506.24*11 nebis E1 u ECMWF, EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS (MÉTÉOROLOGIE) fre 551.506.24*11 nebis E1 u WATER BALANCE OF DRAINAGE BASINS (HYDROLOGY) eng 556.512 nebis E1 u BILAN HYDROLOGIQUE DES BASSINS VERSANTS, BASSINS FLUVIAUX (HYDROLOGIE) fre 556.512 nebis E1 u RELATION PLUIE-DÉBIT (HYDROLOGIE) fre 556.161 nebis E1 u RAINFALL-RUNOFF RELATION (HYDROLOGY) eng 556.161 nebis E1 u MOUNTAIN AREAS (PHYSICAL PLANNING) eng 711.9(23.0) nebis E1 u RÉGIONS DE MONTAGNE (AMÉNAGEMENT DU TERRITOIRE) fre 711.9(23.0) nebis E1 u SUISSE (EUROPE CENTRALE). CONFÉDÉRATION SUISSE fre (494) nebis E1 u SWITZERLAND (CENTRAL EUROPE). SWISS CONFEDERATION eng (494) nebis E1 Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (DE-588)2023928-2 Grad-verleihende Institution dgg SNL NB001 NB999 - chb99 - https://opac.admin.ch/toc/toc1902090120.pdf Inhaltsverzeichnis BK020300 XK020000 XK020000 076 E01-20190610 077 E01-20190610 SNL NB001 NB001 Nbq 121753 NB10010 NEBIS E16 E16 RH Diss ETH 25496 SNL 100 1- Monhart Samuel 1985- (DE-588)1187766356 Verfasser aut SNL 856 41 https://opac.admin.ch/toc/toc1902090120.pdf Inhaltsverzeichnis SNL 710 2- Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (DE-588)2023928-2 Grad-verleihende Institution dgg SNL 100 1- Monhart Samuel Verfasser aut SNL 856 40 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/342681 SNL 856 4- https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:ch:bel-1571659 SNL 856 42 http://www.e-helvetica.nb.admin.ch/directAccess?callnumber=bel-1571659 NEBIS 100 1- Monhart Samuel 1985- (DE-588)1187766356 Verfasser aut NEBIS 700 1- Schär Christoph Joseph 1958- (DE-588)172533740 Akademischer Betreuer dgs NEBIS 700 1- Bogner Konrad Akademischer Betreuer dgs NEBIS 700 1- Liniger Mark Akademischer Betreuer dgs NEBIS 700 1- Montani Andrea Akademischer Betreuer dgs