caa a22 4500 605454299 CHVBK 20210128100206.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20151101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10064-015-0718-9 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10064-015-0718-9 Probabilistic modeling of rockfall trajectories: a review [Elektronische Daten] [Langping Li, Hengxing Lan] Probabilistic approaches are widely adopted for the modeling of rockfall trajectories, but are not widely discussed in the literature. This paper aims to help fill this gap by reviewing probabilistic models of rockfall trajectories, while providing some perspectives for future study. We first make it clear that, from a theoretical point of view, the probabilistic approach is necessitated by both the ontic (inherent) uncertainty associated with rockfalls and the epistemic (information) uncertainty associated with numerical modeling. The review suggests that there may be the potential to improve the probabilistic modeling of rockfall trajectories in various aspects, including the systematic probabilistic modeling criterion, the random sampling approaches employed for probabilistic variables, the probabilistic modeling of rock shape, and the probabilistic prediction of rockfall intensity. However, there are still some open questions regarding the promotion of probabilistic modeling in practice. It is not clear whether probabilistically treating all of the variables of rockfall trajectory model with reasoned distributions will lead to significantly improved results, or whether the improvements will be great enough (given the difficulties and costs involved) that it is worth quantifying all of the uncertainties involved in rockfall trajectory modeling. The answers to these questions can be found in the practice of probabilistic modeling itself. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2015 Rockfall trajectory nationallicence Probabilistic modeling nationallicence Uncertainty nationallicence Random sampling nationallicence Rock shape nationallicence Rockfall intensity nationallicence Li Langping State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, 100101, Beijing, China aut Lan Hengxing State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, 100101, Beijing, China aut Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment Springer Berlin Heidelberg 74/4(2015-11-01), 1163-1176 1435-9529 74:4<1163 2015 74 10064 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-015-0718-9 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-015-0718-9 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Li Langping State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, 100101, Beijing, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lan Hengxing State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, 100101, Beijing, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment Springer Berlin Heidelberg 74/4(2015-11-01), 1163-1176 1435-9529 74:4<1163 2015 74 10064