caa a22 4500 605454566 CHVBK 20210128100207.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20151101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10064-014-0709-2 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10064-014-0709-2 Landslide susceptibility analysis in data-scarce regions: the case of Kyrgyzstan [Elektronische Daten] [Annamaria Saponaro, Marco Pilz, Marc Wieland, Dino Bindi, Bolot Moldobekov, Stefano Parolai] Kyrgyzstan is one of the most exposed countries in the world to landslide hazard. The large variability of local geological materials, together with the difficulties in forecasting heavy precipitation locally and in quantifying the level of ground shaking, call for harmonized procedures to better quantify the hazard and the negative impact of slope failures. By exploiting new advances in Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, together with concepts from Bayesian statistics, and promoting the use of open-source tools, we aim to identify areas in Kyrgyzstan where the potential for landslide activation exists. A range of conditioning factors and their potential impact on landslide occurrence are quantitatively assessed on the basis of the spatial distribution of landslides by applying weights-of-evidence modelling based on (1) a landslide inventory of past events, (2) terrain-derived variables of slope, aspect and curvature, (3) a geological map, (4) a distance from faults map, and (5) a seismic intensity map. A spatial validation of the proposed method has been performed, indicating sufficient measures of significance to predicted results. Initial results are promising and demonstrate the applicability of the method to all of Kyrgyzstan, allowing the identification of areas that are more susceptible to landslides with a level of accuracy greater than 70%. The presented method is, therefore, capable of supporting land planning activities at the regional scale in places where only scarce data are available. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Landslides nationallicence Susceptibility nationallicence GIS nationallicence Weights-of-evidence nationallicence Kyrgyzstan nationallicence Saponaro Annamaria Centre for Early Warning, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtzstr. 7, 14467, Potsdam, Germany aut Pilz Marco Centre for Early Warning, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtzstr. 7, 14467, Potsdam, Germany aut Wieland Marc Centre for Early Warning, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtzstr. 7, 14467, Potsdam, Germany aut Bindi Dino Centre for Early Warning, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtzstr. 7, 14467, Potsdam, Germany aut Moldobekov Bolot Central Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan aut Parolai Stefano Centre for Early Warning, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtzstr. 7, 14467, Potsdam, Germany aut Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment Springer Berlin Heidelberg 74/4(2015-11-01), 1117-1136 1435-9529 74:4<1117 2015 74 10064 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-014-0709-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-014-0709-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Saponaro Annamaria Centre for Early Warning, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtzstr. 7, 14467, Potsdam, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Pilz Marco Centre for Early Warning, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtzstr. 7, 14467, Potsdam, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wieland Marc Centre for Early Warning, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtzstr. 7, 14467, Potsdam, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Bindi Dino Centre for Early Warning, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtzstr. 7, 14467, Potsdam, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Moldobekov Bolot Central Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Parolai Stefano Centre for Early Warning, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtzstr. 7, 14467, Potsdam, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment Springer Berlin Heidelberg 74/4(2015-11-01), 1117-1136 1435-9529 74:4<1117 2015 74 10064