caa a22 4500 605455473 CHVBK 20210128100212.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150801xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10872-015-0298-0 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10872-015-0298-0 Wada Akiyoshi Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1 Nagamine, 305-0052, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut Verification of tropical cyclone heat potential for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting in the Western North Pacific [Elektronische Daten] [Akiyoshi Wada] Tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) is a measurable metric calculated by the summation of ocean heat content from the surface down to the depth of the 26°C isotherm. TCHP calculated by the Meteorological Research Institute multivariate ocean variational estimation (MOVE) system is verified by using TCHP based on in situ observations by profiling floats during 2002-2012. After the verification, the threshold of MOVE-based TCHP before the passage of a tropical cyclone (TC) favorable for triggering TC deepening is determined by best-track central pressure drops for the nearest 6hours from 1985 to 2012. The threshold is specified as the minimum range of TCHP when the ratio of the number of records for TC deepening to the total best-track number of records in a TCHP bin is significantly greater than the reference ratio determined for each domain at a significance level of 0.05. The threshold is relatively low (40-60kJcm−2) around 5-10°N, west of 120°E and east of 140°E, whereas it is relatively high (80-100kJcm−2) around 15-20°N. Around 5-10°N, the ratio for each moving speed shows two peaks: with moving speeds of 3-5 and 7-9ms−1. The former case is exemplified by Typhoon Mike (1990) under relatively low TCHP (< 80kJcm−2), whereas the latter case is exemplified by Typhoon Haiyan (2013), which is more rapidly intensified and reaches a lower minimum central pressure under relatively high TCHP (>120kJcm−2). The Oceanographic Society of Japan and Springer Japan, 2015 Tropical cyclone intensity forecast nationallicence Tropical cyclone deepening nationallicence Tropical cyclone heat potential nationallicence 26°C isothermal depth nationallicence Ocean data assimilation nationallicence Profiling float nationallicence Journal of Oceanography Springer Japan 71/4(2015-08-01), 373-387 0916-8370 71:4<373 2015 71 10872 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-015-0298-0 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-015-0298-0 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Wada Akiyoshi Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1 Nagamine, 305-0052, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Journal of Oceanography Springer Japan 71/4(2015-08-01), 373-387 0916-8370 71:4<373 2015 71 10872