caa a22 4500 605463913 CHVBK 20210128100255.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150601xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10687-014-0207-8 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10687-014-0207-8 On tail trend detection: modeling relative risk [Elektronische Daten] [Laurens de Haan, Albert Tank, Cláudia Neves] The climate change dispute is about changes over time of environmental characteristics (such as rainfall). Some people say that a possible change is not so much in the mean but rather in the extreme phenomena (that is, the average rainfall may not change much but heavy storms may become more or less frequent). The paper studies changes over time in the probability that some high threshold is exceeded. The model is such that the threshold does not need to be specified, the results hold for any high threshold. For simplicity a certain linear trend is studied depending on one real parameter. Estimation and testing procedures (is there a trend?) are developed. Simulation results are presented. The method is applied to trends in heavy rainfall at 18 gauging stations across Germany and The Netherlands. A tentative conclusion is that the trend seems to depend on whether or not a station is close to the sea. Springer Science+Business Media New York, 2014 Extreme value distribution nationallicence Regular variation nationallicence Extreme rainfall nationallicence de Haan Laurens Erasmus University Rotterdam and University of Lisbon, Rotterdam, Netherlands aut Tank Albert KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands aut Neves Cláudia CEAUL and University of Aveiro, Aveuro, Portugal aut Extremes Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 18/2(2015-06-01), 141-178 1386-1999 18:2<141 2015 18 10687 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10687-014-0207-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10687-014-0207-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- de Haan Laurens Erasmus University Rotterdam and University of Lisbon, Rotterdam, Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Tank Albert KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Neves Cláudia CEAUL and University of Aveiro, Aveuro, Portugal aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Extremes Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 18/2(2015-06-01), 141-178 1386-1999 18:2<141 2015 18 10687