A spatial-temporal projection model for extended-range forecast in the tropics
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| 001 | 605470952 | ||
| 003 | CHVBK | ||
| 005 | 20210128100330.0 | ||
| 007 | cr unu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 210128e20150801xx s 000 0 eng | ||
| 024 | 7 | 0 | |a 10.1007/s00382-014-2353-8 |2 doi |
| 035 | |a (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2353-8 | ||
| 245 | 0 | 2 | |a A spatial-temporal projection model for extended-range forecast in the tropics |h [Elektronische Daten] |c [Zhiwei Zhu, Tim Li, Pang-chi Hsu, Jinhai He] |
| 520 | 3 | |a An extended singularity value decomposition based statistical model, namely the spatial-temporal projection model (STPM), was constructed for the extended-range (10-30-day) forecast of tropical outgoing longwave radiation anomalies (OLRA). The special feature of this empirical model is using the spatial and temporal information of predictor-predictand coupled patterns to predict the temporally varying predictand field at all-time leads (i.e., 10-35days) at once. A 10-year hindcast result shows that, different from previous statistical models, the skill scores of the STPM dropped slowly with forecast lead times. Useful skills can be detected at 30-35day leads over most tropical regions. The highest temporal correlation coefficient of 0.4-0.5 appears over the Maritime Continent (Indian and western North Pacific monsoon regions) in boreal winter (summer), exceeding a 99% confidence level. The STPM is also capable in predicting the spatial evolutions of convective anomalies, including the zonal and meridional propagation of OLRA. The forecast of the Real-time Multivariate MJO indices shows that the STPM attains a higher skill than previous statistical models. The STPM also shows comparable skills with the state-of-the-art dynamic models during the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation campaign period, especially at 15-day and longer leads. | |
| 540 | |a Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 | ||
| 690 | 7 | |a Tropical outgoing longwave radiation anomalies |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Intraseasonal oscillation |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Extended-range forecast |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Spatial-temporal projection model |2 nationallicence | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhu |D Zhiwei |u CDRC/ESMC, International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Li |D Tim |u CDRC/ESMC, International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Hsu |D Pang-chi |u CDRC/ESMC, International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a He |D Jinhai |u CDRC/ESMC, International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | |t Climate Dynamics |d Springer Berlin Heidelberg |g 45/3-4(2015-08-01), 1085-1098 |x 0930-7575 |q 45:3-4<1085 |1 2015 |2 45 |o 382 | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2353-8 |q text/html |z Onlinezugriff via DOI |
| 898 | |a BK010053 |b XK010053 |c XK010000 | ||
| 900 | 7 | |a Metadata rights reserved |b Springer special CC-BY-NC licence |2 nationallicence | |
| 908 | |D 1 |a research-article |2 jats | ||
| 949 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |F NATIONALLICENCE |b NL-springer | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 856 |E 40 |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2353-8 |q text/html |z Onlinezugriff via DOI | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Zhu |D Zhiwei |u CDRC/ESMC, International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Li |D Tim |u CDRC/ESMC, International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Hsu |D Pang-chi |u CDRC/ESMC, International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a He |D Jinhai |u CDRC/ESMC, International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 773 |E 0- |t Climate Dynamics |d Springer Berlin Heidelberg |g 45/3-4(2015-08-01), 1085-1098 |x 0930-7575 |q 45:3-4<1085 |1 2015 |2 45 |o 382 | ||