caa a22 4500 605470952 CHVBK 20210128100330.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150801xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2353-8 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2353-8 A spatial-temporal projection model for extended-range forecast in the tropics [Elektronische Daten] [Zhiwei Zhu, Tim Li, Pang-chi Hsu, Jinhai He] An extended singularity value decomposition based statistical model, namely the spatial-temporal projection model (STPM), was constructed for the extended-range (10-30-day) forecast of tropical outgoing longwave radiation anomalies (OLRA). The special feature of this empirical model is using the spatial and temporal information of predictor-predictand coupled patterns to predict the temporally varying predictand field at all-time leads (i.e., 10-35days) at once. A 10-year hindcast result shows that, different from previous statistical models, the skill scores of the STPM dropped slowly with forecast lead times. Useful skills can be detected at 30-35day leads over most tropical regions. The highest temporal correlation coefficient of 0.4-0.5 appears over the Maritime Continent (Indian and western North Pacific monsoon regions) in boreal winter (summer), exceeding a 99% confidence level. The STPM is also capable in predicting the spatial evolutions of convective anomalies, including the zonal and meridional propagation of OLRA. The forecast of the Real-time Multivariate MJO indices shows that the STPM attains a higher skill than previous statistical models. The STPM also shows comparable skills with the state-of-the-art dynamic models during the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation campaign period, especially at 15-day and longer leads. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Tropical outgoing longwave radiation anomalies nationallicence Intraseasonal oscillation nationallicence Extended-range forecast nationallicence Spatial-temporal projection model nationallicence Zhu Zhiwei CDRC/ESMC, International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China aut Li Tim CDRC/ESMC, International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China aut Hsu Pang-chi CDRC/ESMC, International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China aut He Jinhai CDRC/ESMC, International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/3-4(2015-08-01), 1085-1098 0930-7575 45:3-4<1085 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2353-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2353-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Zhu Zhiwei CDRC/ESMC, International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Li Tim CDRC/ESMC, International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hsu Pang-chi CDRC/ESMC, International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- He Jinhai CDRC/ESMC, International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/3-4(2015-08-01), 1085-1098 0930-7575 45:3-4<1085 2015 45 382