Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean
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| 024 | 7 | 0 | |a 10.1007/s00382-014-2329-8 |2 doi |
| 035 | |a (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2329-8 | ||
| 245 | 0 | 0 | |a Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean |h [Elektronische Daten] |c [Michiel Baatsen, Reindert Haarsma, Aarnout Van Delden, Hylke de Vries] |
| 520 | 3 | |a Simulations with a very high resolution (~25km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their genesis region expands, tropical cyclones become more intense and their chances of reaching Europe increase. This paper investigates the properties and evolution of such storms and clarifies the future changes. The studied tropical cyclones feature a typical evolution of tropical development, extratropical transition and a re-intensification. A reduction of the transit area between regions of tropical and extratropical cyclogenesis increases the probability of re-intensification. Many of the modelled storms exhibit hybrid properties in a considerable part of their life cycle during which they exhibit the hazards of both tropical and extratropical systems. In addition to tropical cyclones, other systems such as cold core extratropical storms mainly originating over the Gulf Stream region also increasingly impact Western Europe. Despite their different history, all of the studied storms have one striking similarity: they form a warm seclusion. The structure, intensity and frequency of storms in the present climate are compared to observations using the MERRA and IBTrACS datasets. Damaging winds associated with the occurrence of a sting jet are observed in a large fraction of the cyclones during their final stage. Baroclinic instability is of great importance for the (re-)intensification of the storms. Furthermore, so-called atmospheric rivers providing tropical air prove to be vital for the intensification through diabatic heating and will increase considerably in strength in the future, as will the associated flooding risks. | |
| 540 | |a Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 | ||
| 690 | 7 | |a Climate change |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Tropical cyclones |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Extratropical transition |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Re-intensification |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Warm seclusion |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a DT : EPT difference between the core and the minimum in the south-east quadrant of a storm |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a DT850,max : Maximum EPT difference in a cyclone at 850hPa |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a EPT : Equivalent potential temperature |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a ETC : Extratropical cyclone |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a ETT : Extratropical transition |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a IVT : Integrated vapour transport |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a MSLP : Mean sea level pressure |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Pmin : Minimum MSLP of a cyclone |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a PT : Potential temperature |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a PTC : Post-tropical cyclone |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a PV : Potential vorticity |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a PVU : Potential vorticity units (10−6Km2/kgs) |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Qc : Total amount of core moisture in a cyclone |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a RV : Relative vorticity |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a SST : Sea surface temperature |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a TC : Tropical cyclone |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a V10,max : Maximum 10m wind speed found within 20 grid boxes of a storm's centre |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Zd : Storm relative thickness asymmetry of 850-300hPa layer |2 nationallicence | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Baatsen |D Michiel |u Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Haarsma |D Reindert |u Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Van Delden |D Aarnout |u Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 8, 3584 CS, Utrecht, The Netherlands |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a de Vries |D Hylke |u Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | |t Climate Dynamics |d Springer Berlin Heidelberg |g 45/3-4(2015-08-01), 949-964 |x 0930-7575 |q 45:3-4<949 |1 2015 |2 45 |o 382 | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2329-8 |q text/html |z Onlinezugriff via DOI |
| 898 | |a BK010053 |b XK010053 |c XK010000 | ||
| 900 | 7 | |a Metadata rights reserved |b Springer special CC-BY-NC licence |2 nationallicence | |
| 908 | |D 1 |a research-article |2 jats | ||
| 949 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |F NATIONALLICENCE |b NL-springer | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 856 |E 40 |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2329-8 |q text/html |z Onlinezugriff via DOI | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Baatsen |D Michiel |u Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Haarsma |D Reindert |u Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Van Delden |D Aarnout |u Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 8, 3584 CS, Utrecht, The Netherlands |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a de Vries |D Hylke |u Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 773 |E 0- |t Climate Dynamics |d Springer Berlin Heidelberg |g 45/3-4(2015-08-01), 949-964 |x 0930-7575 |q 45:3-4<949 |1 2015 |2 45 |o 382 | ||