caa a22 4500 60547110X CHVBK 20210128100331.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150801xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2329-8 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2329-8 Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean [Elektronische Daten] [Michiel Baatsen, Reindert Haarsma, Aarnout Van Delden, Hylke de Vries] Simulations with a very high resolution (~25km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their genesis region expands, tropical cyclones become more intense and their chances of reaching Europe increase. This paper investigates the properties and evolution of such storms and clarifies the future changes. The studied tropical cyclones feature a typical evolution of tropical development, extratropical transition and a re-intensification. A reduction of the transit area between regions of tropical and extratropical cyclogenesis increases the probability of re-intensification. Many of the modelled storms exhibit hybrid properties in a considerable part of their life cycle during which they exhibit the hazards of both tropical and extratropical systems. In addition to tropical cyclones, other systems such as cold core extratropical storms mainly originating over the Gulf Stream region also increasingly impact Western Europe. Despite their different history, all of the studied storms have one striking similarity: they form a warm seclusion. The structure, intensity and frequency of storms in the present climate are compared to observations using the MERRA and IBTrACS datasets. Damaging winds associated with the occurrence of a sting jet are observed in a large fraction of the cyclones during their final stage. Baroclinic instability is of great importance for the (re-)intensification of the storms. Furthermore, so-called atmospheric rivers providing tropical air prove to be vital for the intensification through diabatic heating and will increase considerably in strength in the future, as will the associated flooding risks. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Climate change nationallicence Tropical cyclones nationallicence Extratropical transition nationallicence Re-intensification nationallicence Warm seclusion nationallicence DT : EPT difference between the core and the minimum in the south-east quadrant of a storm nationallicence DT850,max : Maximum EPT difference in a cyclone at 850hPa nationallicence EPT : Equivalent potential temperature nationallicence ETC : Extratropical cyclone nationallicence ETT : Extratropical transition nationallicence IVT : Integrated vapour transport nationallicence MSLP : Mean sea level pressure nationallicence Pmin : Minimum MSLP of a cyclone nationallicence PT : Potential temperature nationallicence PTC : Post-tropical cyclone nationallicence PV : Potential vorticity nationallicence PVU : Potential vorticity units (10−6Km2/kgs) nationallicence Qc : Total amount of core moisture in a cyclone nationallicence RV : Relative vorticity nationallicence SST : Sea surface temperature nationallicence TC : Tropical cyclone nationallicence V10,max : Maximum 10m wind speed found within 20 grid boxes of a storm's centre nationallicence Zd : Storm relative thickness asymmetry of 850-300hPa layer nationallicence Baatsen Michiel Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands aut Haarsma Reindert Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands aut Van Delden Aarnout Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 8, 3584 CS, Utrecht, The Netherlands aut de Vries Hylke Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/3-4(2015-08-01), 949-964 0930-7575 45:3-4<949 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2329-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2329-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Baatsen Michiel Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Haarsma Reindert Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Van Delden Aarnout Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 8, 3584 CS, Utrecht, The Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- de Vries Hylke Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/3-4(2015-08-01), 949-964 0930-7575 45:3-4<949 2015 45 382