caa a22 4500 605471150 CHVBK 20210128100331.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150801xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2319-x doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2319-x A mechanism for the multidecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnection with Europe [Elektronische Daten] [Jorge López-Parages, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, Laurent Terray] El Niño phenomenon is the main oceanic driver of the interannual atmospheric variability and a determinant source of predictability in the tropics and extratropics. Several studies have found a consistent and statistically significant impact of El Niño over the North Atlantic European Sector, which could lead to an improvement of the skill of current seasonal forecast systems over Europe. Nevertheless, this signal seems to be non-stationary in time and it could be modulated by the ocean at very low frequencies. Hence, the seasonal climate predictability based on El Niño could be variable and only effective for specific time periods. This study considers the multidecadal changes in the ocean mean state as a possible modulator of ENSO-European rainfall teleconnection at interannual timescales. A long control simulation of the CNRM-CM5 model is used to substantiate this hypothesis and to assess if it can be relevant to explain the non-stationary behavior seen in the twentieth century. The model reproduces the leading rainfall mode over the Euro-Mediterranean region, and its non stationary link with El Niño. This teleconnection has been identified in coincidence with changes of the zonal mean flow at upper levels, which influence the propagation of the waves from the tropics to extratropics through the atmosphere and, hence, to explain the changing impact over Europe. However, the non-stationary impact observed along the twentieth century could also be related to the observed changes in the interannual oceanic forcing signal itself. The results obtained suggest, for both hypotheses, an important role of the natural internal variability of the ocean at multidecadal timescales. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Atmospheric teleconnection nationallicence ENSO nationallicence European rainfall nationallicence Multidecadal modulation nationallicence López-Parages Jorge Departamento de Física de la Tierra, Astronomía y Astrofísica I (Geofísica y Meteorología). Instituto de Geociencias UCM-CSIC, Facultad de C.C. Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM), Pza de las Ciencias, 28040, Madrid, Spain aut Rodríguez-Fonseca Belén Departamento de Física de la Tierra, Astronomía y Astrofísica I (Geofísica y Meteorología). Instituto de Geociencias UCM-CSIC, Facultad de C.C. Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM), Pza de las Ciencias, 28040, Madrid, Spain aut Terray Laurent Climate Modelling and Global Change Team, CERFACS/CNRS, 42 Avenue 14 Gaspard Coriolis, 31057, Toulouse, France aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/3-4(2015-08-01), 867-880 0930-7575 45:3-4<867 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2319-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2319-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- López-Parages Jorge Departamento de Física de la Tierra, Astronomía y Astrofísica I (Geofísica y Meteorología). Instituto de Geociencias UCM-CSIC, Facultad de C.C. Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM), Pza de las Ciencias, 28040, Madrid, Spain aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Rodríguez-Fonseca Belén Departamento de Física de la Tierra, Astronomía y Astrofísica I (Geofísica y Meteorología). Instituto de Geociencias UCM-CSIC, Facultad de C.C. Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM), Pza de las Ciencias, 28040, Madrid, Spain aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Terray Laurent Climate Modelling and Global Change Team, CERFACS/CNRS, 42 Avenue 14 Gaspard Coriolis, 31057, Toulouse, France aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/3-4(2015-08-01), 867-880 0930-7575 45:3-4<867 2015 45 382