caa a22 4500 605471177 CHVBK 20210128100331.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150801xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2283-5 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2283-5 Are estimates of anthropogenic and natural influences on Australia's extreme 2010-2012 rainfall model-dependent? [Elektronische Daten] [Sophie Lewis, David Karoly] Australia experienced much above average rainfall in association with strong, extended La Niña conditions during 2010-2012. Was the heavy Australian rainfall influenced by La Niña conditions and/or anthropogenic greenhouse gases? We investigate the relative contributions of anthropogenic climate change and natural climatic variability to the likelihood of heavy Australian rainfall using three distinct model datasets. Area-average rainfall anomalies for model simulations with natural forcings only were compared to simulations with both anthropogenic and natural forcings using 16 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Using fraction of attributable risk to compare the likelihood of unusual rainfall between the parallel experiments, we find attribution statements are uncertain, with FAR values sensitive to the attribution parameters considered, including thresholds, regions and seasons. When heavy rainfall probabilities were next investigated in ensembles of two atmospheric general circulation models, run with and without anthropogenically-induced sea surface temperature changes, results were model-dependent. Overall, the attribution of seasonal-scale heavy Australia rainfall to a particular cause is likely more complicated than for temperature extremes. As estimates of the greenhouse gas attributable change in rainfall risk may depend on the model datasets considered, it is also useful to consider model outputs from several datasets and using various estimates of counterfactual surface conditions to establish robust attribution statements for extreme rainfall events. In contrast, comparing the likelihoods of heavy rainfall during simulated La Niña years with El Niño/neutral years reveals a substantial La Niña influence on Australian rainfall during 2010-2012 that is robust to changes in the attribution framework. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Attribution nationallicence Climate change nationallicence Extreme rainfall nationallicence ENSO nationallicence Australia nationallicence Lewis Sophie School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of Melbourne, 3010, Melbourne, VIC, Australia aut Karoly David School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of Melbourne, 3010, Melbourne, VIC, Australia aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/3-4(2015-08-01), 679-695 0930-7575 45:3-4<679 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2283-5 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2283-5 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lewis Sophie School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of Melbourne, 3010, Melbourne, VIC, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Karoly David School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of Melbourne, 3010, Melbourne, VIC, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/3-4(2015-08-01), 679-695 0930-7575 45:3-4<679 2015 45 382