caa a22 4500 605471215 CHVBK 20210128100332.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150801xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2357-4 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2357-4 Influence of temperature and precipitation variability on near-term snow trends [Elektronische Daten] [Justin Mankin, Noah Diffenbaugh] Snow is a vital resource for a host of natural and human systems. Global warming is projected to drive widespread decreases in snow accumulation by the end of the century, potentially affecting water, food, and energy supplies, seasonal heat extremes, and wildfire risk. However, over the next few decades, when the planning and implementation of current adaptation responses are most relevant, the snow response is more uncertain, largely because of uncertainty in regional and local precipitation trends. We use a large (40-member) single-model ensemble climate model experiment to examine the influence of precipitation variability on the direction and magnitude of near-term Northern Hemisphere snow trends. We find that near-term uncertainty in the sign of regional precipitation change does not cascade into uncertainty in the sign of regional snow accumulation change. Rather, temperature increases drive statistically robust consistency in the sign of future near-term snow accumulation trends, with all regions exhibiting reductions in the fraction of precipitation falling as snow, along with mean decreases in late-season snow accumulation. However, internal variability does create uncertainty in the magnitude of hemispheric and regional snow changes, including uncertainty as large as 33% of the baseline mean. In addition, within the 40-member ensemble, many mid-latitude grid points exhibit at least one realization with a statistically significant positive trend in net snow accumulation, and at least one realization with a statistically significant negative trend. These results suggest that the direction of near-term snow accumulation change is robust at the regional scale, but that internal variability can influence the magnitude and direction of snow accumulation changes at the local scale, even in areas that exhibit a high signal-to-noise ratio. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Snow nationallicence CCSM3 nationallicence Climate variability nationallicence Water availability nationallicence Global warming nationallicence Mankin Justin Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Jerry Yang and Akiko Yamazaki Environment and Energy Building, 94305-4216, Stanford, CA, USA aut Diffenbaugh Noah Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Jerry Yang and Akiko Yamazaki Environment and Energy Building, 94305-4216, Stanford, CA, USA aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/3-4(2015-08-01), 1099-1116 0930-7575 45:3-4<1099 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2357-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2357-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Mankin Justin Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Jerry Yang and Akiko Yamazaki Environment and Energy Building, 94305-4216, Stanford, CA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Diffenbaugh Noah Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Jerry Yang and Akiko Yamazaki Environment and Energy Building, 94305-4216, Stanford, CA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/3-4(2015-08-01), 1099-1116 0930-7575 45:3-4<1099 2015 45 382