caa a22 4500 605471258 CHVBK 20210128100332.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150801xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2280-8 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2280-8 Markovian characteristics of dry spells over the Iberian Peninsula under present and future conditions using ESCENA ensemble of regional climate models [Elektronische Daten] [Noelia López-Franca, Enrique Sánchez, Teresa Losada, Marta Domínguez, Raquel Romera, Miguel Gaertner] The study analyses the annual structure of dry spells over the Iberian Peninsula through a second markov chain model based on the persistence concept under present and future conditions. The persistence of dryness can be considered as an indicator of drought, being useful for early warning drought systems. It can be studied as an isolated factor, here we focus the analysis on the probability of dry spells occurrence at each grid point of the domain by means of a two-state second order of Markov Chain model. Previous studies using this model along twentieth century observational data obtained successful results in the dry spells characterisation over several regions. First, the application of this theoretical model on three observational datasets over the domain, confirms the second order of markov chain characteristics of the observed dry spells. Then, the observational climate (1989-2007) EraInterim-forced regional climate model simulations from Spanish ESCENA project are successfully compared with those observational datasets results. Then, the study of climate change projections on the markovian behaviour is studied through the ECHAM5r2 global climate model and the regional models under present (1970-2000) and future (2021-2050) climate conditions. They indicate that the markovian characteristics of dry spells are kept in the future over the domain except some points in the South East coast. A decrease of the probability of occurrence of short dry spells (1-7days) is obtained, while the longest dry spells (>12 days) are increased. These results are coherent with the analysis of the annual average of dry spells length. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Dry spells nationallicence Markov chain nationallicence Regional climate models nationallicence ESCENA project nationallicence Iberian Peninsula nationallicence López-Franca Noelia Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), CONICET-UBA UMI IFAECI/CNRS, Ciudad Universitaria. Int. Guiraldes 2160, Pabellón 2, Piso 2, C1428EGA, Ciudad Autonoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina aut Sánchez Enrique Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales y Bioquímica, Universidad de Castilla - La Mancha, Avda. Carlos III s/n, 45071, Toledo, Spain aut Losada Teresa Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales y Bioquímica, Universidad de Castilla - La Mancha, Avda. Carlos III s/n, 45071, Toledo, Spain aut Domínguez Marta Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales (ICAM), Universidad de Castilla - La Mancha, Avda. Carlos III s/n, 45071, Toledo, Spain aut Romera Raquel Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales (ICAM), Universidad de Castilla - La Mancha, Avda. Carlos III s/n, 45071, Toledo, Spain aut Gaertner Miguel Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales y Bioquímica, Universidad de Castilla - La Mancha, Avda. Carlos III s/n, 45071, Toledo, Spain aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/3-4(2015-08-01), 661-677 0930-7575 45:3-4<661 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2280-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2280-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- López-Franca Noelia Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), CONICET-UBA UMI IFAECI/CNRS, Ciudad Universitaria. Int. Guiraldes 2160, Pabellón 2, Piso 2, C1428EGA, Ciudad Autonoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Sánchez Enrique Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales y Bioquímica, Universidad de Castilla - La Mancha, Avda. Carlos III s/n, 45071, Toledo, Spain aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Losada Teresa Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales y Bioquímica, Universidad de Castilla - La Mancha, Avda. Carlos III s/n, 45071, Toledo, Spain aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Domínguez Marta Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales (ICAM), Universidad de Castilla - La Mancha, Avda. Carlos III s/n, 45071, Toledo, Spain aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Romera Raquel Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales (ICAM), Universidad de Castilla - La Mancha, Avda. Carlos III s/n, 45071, Toledo, Spain aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Gaertner Miguel Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales y Bioquímica, Universidad de Castilla - La Mancha, Avda. Carlos III s/n, 45071, Toledo, Spain aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/3-4(2015-08-01), 661-677 0930-7575 45:3-4<661 2015 45 382