caa a22 4500 605471312 CHVBK 20210128100332.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20151001xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2426-8 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2426-8 Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models [Elektronische Daten] [Giuseppe Zappa, Matthew Hawcroft, Len Shaffrey, Emily Black, David Brayshaw] The Mediterranean region has been identified as a climate change "hot-spot” due to a projected reduction in precipitation and fresh water availability which has potentially large socio-economic impacts. To increase confidence in these projections, it is important to physically understand how this precipitation reduction occurs. This study quantifies the impact on winter Mediterranean precipitation due to changes in extratropical cyclones in 17 CMIP5 climate models. In each model, the extratropical cyclones are objectively tracked and a simple approach is applied to identify the precipitation associated to each cyclone. This allows us to decompose the Mediterranean precipitation reduction into a contribution due to changes in the number of cyclones and a contribution due to changes in the amount of precipitation generated by each cyclone. The results show that the projected Mediterranean precipitation reduction in winter is strongly related to a decrease in the number of Mediterranean cyclones. However, the contribution from changes in the amount of precipitation generated by each cyclone are also locally important: in the East Mediterranean they amplify the precipitation trend due to the reduction in the number of cyclones, while in the North Mediterranean they compensate for it. Some of the processes that determine the opposing cyclone precipitation intensity responses in the North and East Mediterranean regions are investigated by exploring the CMIP5 inter-model spread. The Author(s), 2014 Mediterranean climate nationallicence Precipitation projections nationallicence Extratropical cyclones nationallicence CMIP5 nationallicence Zappa Giuseppe NCAS-Climate and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK aut Hawcroft Matthew Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK aut Shaffrey Len NCAS-Climate and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK aut Black Emily NCAS-Climate and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK aut Brayshaw David NCAS-Climate and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/7-8(2015-10-01), 1727-1738 0930-7575 45:7-8<1727 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2426-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2426-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Zappa Giuseppe NCAS-Climate and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hawcroft Matthew Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Shaffrey Len NCAS-Climate and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Black Emily NCAS-Climate and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Brayshaw David NCAS-Climate and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/7-8(2015-10-01), 1727-1738 0930-7575 45:7-8<1727 2015 45 382