caa a22 4500 605471363 CHVBK 20210128100332.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20151001xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2432-x doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2432-x Climate change and the Portuguese precipitation: ENSEMBLES regional climate models results [Elektronische Daten] [Pedro Soares, Rita Cardoso, João Ferreira, Pedro Miranda] In Portugal, the precipitation regimes present one of the highest volumes of extreme precipitation occurrence in Europe, and one of the largest mean precipitation spatial gradient (annual observed values above 2,500mm in the NW and under 400mm in the SE). Moreover, southern Europe is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate change. In the ENSEMBLES framework many climate change assessment studies were performed, but none focused on Portuguese precipitation. An extensive evaluation and ranking of the RCMs results addressing the representation of mean precipitation and frequency distributions was performed through the computation of statistical errors and frequency distribution scores. With these results, an ensemble was constructed; giving the same weight to mean precipitation and distribution model skills. This ensemble reveals a good ability to describe the precipitation regime in Portugal, and enables the evaluation of the eventual impact of climate change on Portuguese precipitation according to the A1B scenario. The mean seasonal precipitation is expected to decrease substantially in all seasons, excluding winter. This reduction is statistically significant; it spans fromless than 20% in the north to 40% in the south in the intermediate seasons, and is above 50% in the largest portion of mainland in summer. At a basin level the precipitation diminishes in all months for all the basins with exception of December. Total precipitation PDFs reveal an important decrease of the contribution from low to moderate/high precipitation bins, and a striking rise for days with extreme rainfall, up to 30%. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Climate change nationallicence Regional climate modelling nationallicence Precipitation nationallicence PDFs nationallicence Extremes nationallicence Basins nationallicence Portugal nationallicence Soares Pedro Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, Ed. C8 (3.26), 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal aut Cardoso Rita Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, Ed. C8 (3.26), 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal aut Ferreira João Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, Rua C do Aeroporto, 1749-077, Lisbon, Portugal aut Miranda Pedro Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, Ed. C8 (3.26), 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/7-8(2015-10-01), 1771-1787 0930-7575 45:7-8<1771 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2432-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2432-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Soares Pedro Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, Ed. C8 (3.26), 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Cardoso Rita Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, Ed. C8 (3.26), 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ferreira João Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, Rua C do Aeroporto, 1749-077, Lisbon, Portugal aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Miranda Pedro Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, Ed. C8 (3.26), 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/7-8(2015-10-01), 1771-1787 0930-7575 45:7-8<1771 2015 45 382