caa a22 4500 605471398 CHVBK 20210128100333.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20151001xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2450-8 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2450-8 Projected changes in tropical cyclones over Vietnam and the South China Sea using a 25km regional climate model perturbed physics ensemble [Elektronische Daten] [Grace Redmond, Kevin Hodges, Carol Mcsweeney, Richard Jones, David Hein] The regional climate modelling system PRECIS, was run at 25km horizontal resolution for 150years (1949-2099) using global driving data from a five member perturbed physics ensemble (based on the coupled global climate model HadCM3). Output from these simulations was used to investigate projected changes in tropical cyclones (TCs) over Vietnam and the South China Sea due to global warming (under SRES scenario A1B). Thirty year climatological mean periods were used to look at projected changes in future (2069-2098) TCs compared to a 1961-1990 baseline. Present day results were compared qualitatively with IBTrACS observations and found to be reasonably realistic. Future projections show a 20-44% decrease in TC frequency, although the spatial patterns of change differ between the ensemble members, and an increase of 27-53% in the amount of TC associated precipitation. No statistically significant changes in TC intensity were found, however, the occurrence of more intense TCs (defined as those with a maximum 10m wind speed >35m/s) was found to increase by 3-9%. Projected increases in TC associated precipitation are likely caused by increased evaporation and availability of atmospheric water vapour, due to increased sea surface and atmospheric temperature. The mechanisms behind the projected changes in TC frequency are difficult to link explicitly; changes are most likely due to the combination of increased static stability, increased vertical wind shear and decreased upward motion, which suggest a decrease in the tropical overturning circulation. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Redmond Grace Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK aut Hodges Kevin NERC Centre for Earth Observation, University of Reading, Reading, UK aut Mcsweeney Carol Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK aut Jones Richard Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK aut Hein David Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/7-8(2015-10-01), 1983-2000 0930-7575 45:7-8<1983 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2450-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2450-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Redmond Grace Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hodges Kevin NERC Centre for Earth Observation, University of Reading, Reading, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Mcsweeney Carol Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Jones Richard Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hein David Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/7-8(2015-10-01), 1983-2000 0930-7575 45:7-8<1983 2015 45 382