caa a22 4500 605471460 CHVBK 20210128105155.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20151001xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2440-x doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2440-x CO2-induced climate change in northern Europe: CMIP2 versus CMIP3 versus CMIP5 [Elektronische Daten] [Jouni Räisänen, Jussi Ylhäisi] The simulation of near-present-day climate and climate change in northern Europe is compared between the CMIP2, CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, focusing on an idealized scenario with a doubling of CO2 in 70years. The control simulations in the three ensembles share similar biases, including generally colder than observed temperatures and an underestimated north-south pressure gradient across northern Europe. The CO2-induced climate changes are also similar, despite a slight increasing (decreasing) trend in the simulated warming (precipitation increase) from the older towards the newer models. About half of the intermodel variance in the simulated annual mean warming in northern Europe is explained by differences in the global mean warming, whereas differences in the regional mean sea level pressure change contribute nearly 40% of the variance of the annual precipitation change. An energy and water balance analysis for a subset of the models additionally suggests that the spread in the simulated warming is strongly affected by the snow-albedo feedback in spring and changes in cloudiness in summer, while both increased evaporation and changes in atmospheric water vapour convergence are important for precipitation changes. A comparison for the CMIP5 ensemble reveals a close similarity in temperature change in northern Europe between the idealized CO2 simulations and the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations for the twenty-first century, once differences in the rate of the ensemble-averaged global mean warming are accounted for. Precipitation tends to increase slightly more under the RCP scenarios, possibly due to the assumed decrease in anthropogenic aerosols. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2014 Climate change nationallicence Northern Europe nationallicence CMIP nationallicence Temperature nationallicence Precipitation nationallicence Sea level pressure nationallicence Energy balance nationallicence Water balance nationallicence Räisänen Jouni Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 48, 00014, Helsinki, Finland aut Ylhäisi Jussi Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 48, 00014, Helsinki, Finland aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/7-8(2015-10-01), 1877-1897 0930-7575 45:7-8<1877 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2440-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2440-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Räisänen Jouni Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 48, 00014, Helsinki, Finland aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ylhäisi Jussi Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 48, 00014, Helsinki, Finland aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/7-8(2015-10-01), 1877-1897 0930-7575 45:7-8<1877 2015 45 382 SWISSBIB 302543465