caa a22 4500 605471517 CHVBK 20210128100333.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20151001xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-015-2469-5 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-015-2469-5 Decadal predictability of soil water, vegetation, and wildfire frequency over North America [Elektronische Daten] [Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Axel Timmermann, Samantha Stevenson, Pedro DiNezio, Sally Langford] The potential decadal predictability of land hydrological and biogeochemical variables in North America is examined using a 900-year-long pre-industrial control simulation, conducted with the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.0.3. The leading modes of simulated North American precipitation and soil water storage are characterized essentially by qualitatively similar meridional seesaw patterns associated with the activity of the westerly jet. Whereas the corresponding precipitation variability can be described as a white noise stochastic process, power spectra of vertically integrated soil water exhibit significant redness on timescales of years to decades, since the predictability of soil water storage arises mostly from the integration of precipitation variability. As a result, damped persistence hindcasts following a 1st order Markov process are skillful with lead times of up to several years. This potential multi-year skill estimate is consistent with ensemble hindcasts conducted with the CESM for various initial conditions. Our control simulation further suggests that decadal variations in soil water storage also affect vegetation and wildfire occurrences. The long-term potential predictability of soil water variations in combination with the slow regrowth of vegetation after major disruptions leads to enhanced predictability on decadal timescales for vegetation, terrestrial carbon stock, and fire frequency, in particular in the Southern United States (US)/Mexico region. By contrast, the prediction skill of fire frequency in the Northern US is limited to 1 year. Our results demonstrate that skillful decadal predictions of soil water storage, carbon stock, and fire frequency are feasible with proper initialization of soil conditions. Although the potential predictability in our idealized modeling framework would overestimate the real predictability of the coupled climate-land-vegetation system, the decadal climate prediction may become beneficial for water resource management, forestry, and agriculture. The Author(s), 2015 Decadal climate prediction nationallicence Land hydrological process nationallicence Earth system model nationallicence Chikamoto Yoshimitsu IPRC, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East-West Road, 96822, Honolulu, HI, USA aut Timmermann Axel IPRC, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East-West Road, 96822, Honolulu, HI, USA aut Stevenson Samantha Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA aut DiNezio Pedro IPRC, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East-West Road, 96822, Honolulu, HI, USA aut Langford Sally Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/7-8(2015-10-01), 2213-2235 0930-7575 45:7-8<2213 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2469-5 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2469-5 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Chikamoto Yoshimitsu IPRC, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East-West Road, 96822, Honolulu, HI, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Timmermann Axel IPRC, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East-West Road, 96822, Honolulu, HI, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Stevenson Samantha Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- DiNezio Pedro IPRC, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East-West Road, 96822, Honolulu, HI, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Langford Sally Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/7-8(2015-10-01), 2213-2235 0930-7575 45:7-8<2213 2015 45 382