caa a22 4500 60547169X CHVBK 20210128100334.0 cr unu---uuuuu 210128e20150901xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00382-014-2424-x doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2424-x Projected changes in Malawi's growing season [Elektronische Daten] [Edward Vizy, Kerry Cook, James Chimphamba, Brent McCusker] Regional climate model projections at 30-km resolution are used to predict future mid-century and late-century growing season changes over Malawi due to global warming under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 business-as-usual emissions forcing scenario. Three different methods for estimating growing season characteristics are applied and evaluated. All three methods yield reasonable growing season length, onset, and demise date estimates over Malawi given the wide range of uncertainty of the observations. The projections indicate the likelihood for a shorter growing season in the future over Malawi south of 13.5°S. At mid-century the growing season length is predicted to be 20-40% (20-55days) shorter over the southernmost districts and 5-20% (5-30days) shorter over the central districts. By late-century the length is predicted to be 25-55% (20-70days) shorter with significant differences extending into northern Malawi. The shorter growing season is primarily associated with an earlier demise date, as no significant change in the onset date is predicted. Analysis of the regional circulation and horizontal moisture flux transport indicates that the earlier demise is associated with an intensification of the thermal low over the Kalahari Desert to the south and west of Malawi and an expansion of the mid-tropospheric Kalahari anticyclone over southern Africa. The stronger thermal low/anticyclone enhances the moisture flux divergence over Malawi suppressing the convective activity at the end of the wet season. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2015 MalawiGrowing season nationallicence Regional climate model nationallicence Climate change impacts nationallicence Kalahari anticyclone nationallicence Thermal low nationallicence African rainfall nationallicence Vizy Edward Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1100, 78712, Austin, TX, USA aut Cook Kerry Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1100, 78712, Austin, TX, USA aut Chimphamba James Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, Chancellor College, University of Malawi, P.O. Box 280, Zomba, Malawi aut McCusker Brent Department of Geology and Geography, West Virginia University, 330 Brooks Hall, 98 Beechurst Ave., 26506, Morgantown, WV, USA aut Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/5-6(2015-09-01), 1673-1698 0930-7575 45:5-6<1673 2015 45 382 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2424-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2424-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Vizy Edward Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1100, 78712, Austin, TX, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Cook Kerry Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1100, 78712, Austin, TX, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Chimphamba James Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, Chancellor College, University of Malawi, P.O. Box 280, Zomba, Malawi aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- McCusker Brent Department of Geology and Geography, West Virginia University, 330 Brooks Hall, 98 Beechurst Ave., 26506, Morgantown, WV, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin Heidelberg 45/5-6(2015-09-01), 1673-1698 0930-7575 45:5-6<1673 2015 45 382