Fast-track attribution assessments based on pre-computed estimates of changes in the odds of warm extremes
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| 008 | 210128e20150901xx s 000 0 eng | ||
| 024 | 7 | 0 | |a 10.1007/s00382-014-2408-x |2 doi |
| 035 | |a (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00382-014-2408-x | ||
| 245 | 0 | 0 | |a Fast-track attribution assessments based on pre-computed estimates of changes in the odds of warm extremes |h [Elektronische Daten] |c [Nikolaos Christidis, Peter Stott, Francis Zwiers] |
| 520 | 3 | |a Regional warming due to anthropogenic influence on the climate is expected to increase the frequency of very warm years and seasons. The growing research area of extreme event attribution has provided pertinent scientific evidence for a number of such warm events for which the forced climate response rises above internal climatic variability. Although the demand for attribution assessments is higher shortly after an event occurs, most scientific studies become available several months later. A formal attribution methodology is employed here to pre-compute the changing odds of very warm years and seasons in regions across the world. Events are defined based on the exceedence of temperature thresholds and their changing odds are measured over a range of pre-specified thresholds, which means assessments can be made as soon as a new event happens. Optimal fingerprinting provides observationally constrained estimates of the global temperature response to external forcings from which regional information is extracted. This information is combined with estimates of internal variability to construct temperature distributions with and without the effect of anthropogenic influence. The likelihood of an event is computed for each distribution and the change in the odds estimated. Analyses are conducted with seven climate models to explore the model dependency of the results. Apart from colder regions and seasons, characterised by greater internal climate variability, the odds of warm events are found to have significantly increased and temperatures above the threshold of 1-in-10year events during 1961-1990 have become at least twice as likely to occur. | |
| 540 | |a Crown Copyright, 2014 | ||
| 690 | 7 | |a Detection and attribution |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Regional temperature extremes |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Anthropogenic forcings |2 nationallicence | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Christidis |D Nikolaos |u Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, EX1 3PB, Exeter, UK |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Stott |D Peter |u Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, EX1 3PB, Exeter, UK |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zwiers |D Francis |u Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Sedgewick C183, University of Victoria, V8W 2Y2, Victoria, BC, Canada |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | |t Climate Dynamics |d Springer Berlin Heidelberg |g 45/5-6(2015-09-01), 1547-1564 |x 0930-7575 |q 45:5-6<1547 |1 2015 |2 45 |o 382 | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2408-x |q text/html |z Onlinezugriff via DOI |
| 898 | |a BK010053 |b XK010053 |c XK010000 | ||
| 900 | 7 | |a Metadata rights reserved |b Springer special CC-BY-NC licence |2 nationallicence | |
| 908 | |D 1 |a research-article |2 jats | ||
| 949 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |F NATIONALLICENCE |b NL-springer | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 856 |E 40 |u https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2408-x |q text/html |z Onlinezugriff via DOI | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Christidis |D Nikolaos |u Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, EX1 3PB, Exeter, UK |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Stott |D Peter |u Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, EX1 3PB, Exeter, UK |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Zwiers |D Francis |u Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Sedgewick C183, University of Victoria, V8W 2Y2, Victoria, BC, Canada |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 773 |E 0- |t Climate Dynamics |d Springer Berlin Heidelberg |g 45/5-6(2015-09-01), 1547-1564 |x 0930-7575 |q 45:5-6<1547 |1 2015 |2 45 |o 382 | ||